As they do for every UFC card and every other major MMA event, BetUS.com has all the fight lines for tonight’s “TUF 9 Finale.” What makes this particular card interesting, is BetUS is also providing a whole hand full of prop bets on the main event, Clay Guida vs. Diego Sanchez. Let’s jump right in…
Diego Sanchez -300 vs. Clay Guida +220
Sanchez is looked at as the favorite just as most of us here at PRO MMA (promma.info) agreed on in our staff picks. Of course it is possible Guida could pull off a decision but it is highly unlikely given Sanchez’s wrestling, stand up skills, focus, and the fact he has just come down to lightweight recently from spending most of his career at welterweight.
Things get really interesting though when you start looking at the various prop bets on this fight:
Fight goes distance -160 / Fight won’t go distance +120
Guida wins in round 1 +1000 / Any other result -2500
Guida wins in round 2 +1100 / Any other result -3000
Guida wins in round 3 +1200 / Any other result -4000
Sanchez wins in round 1 +650 / Any other result -1000
Sanchez wins in round 2 +700 / Any other result -1200
Sanchez wins in round 3 +700 / Any other result -1200
As you can see, the odds are really in favor of this fight going the distance with Sanchez as the winner. However, if you have any inclination or inside info that would lead you to believe Guida may win, then you should bet on him. However, you must realize you are in the minority.
The best bets in this fight are if you think either Sanchez or Guida can finish the fight. Even if you pick the favorite, Sanchez, to finish the fight in any round you stand to make some good money. $100 bucks on Sanchez to finish the fight in round 1 will get you $650 in return. $100 bucks on Sanchez to finish in rounds 2 or 3, then you get $700 in return. You have to pick the round. If you put a $100 on each round, you are gauranteed a win if Sanchez can finish, and even though the PRO MMA (promma.info) staff picked the fight to go to decision, we could be wrong, stranger things have happened.
The other fight lines are pretty straight up.
Nate Diaz -165 vs. Joe Stevenson +135
Chris Lytle -260 vs. Kevin Burns +200
“The Ultimate Fighter 9” Lightweight Final
Andre Winner -220 vs. Ross Pearson +175
“The Ultimate Fighter 9” Welterweight Final
Damarques Johnson -350 vs. James Wilks +250
Melvin Guillard +200 vs. Gleison Tibau -260
Edgar Garcia EVEN vs. Brad Blackburn -130
Tomasz Drwal -105 vs. Mike Ciesnolevicz -125
Frank Lester +190 vs. Nick Osipczak -240
Cameron Dollar +200 vs. Jason Dent -260
The first fight that sticks out to me is Melvin Guillard vs. Gleison Tibaou. Guillard can finish anyone if he is prepared and in the right frame of mind. The guy is so athletic, explosive, and dangerous.
Unfortunately for him, Tibau is a submission wizard, which is where six of Guillard’s seven losses have come from. Having said that, Guillard can end anyone’s night if he connects with a shot and there is always that chance he could KO Tibau. Could be worth the risk.
The other fight that sticks out is Frank Lester vs. Nick Osipczak. As apathetic as I was toward this season’s The Ultimate Fighter, Frank Lester did impress me with his heart. Even though he didn’t make the TUF 9 finals, he fought four times in just over a month on the show and he is fighting on this card so obviously Dana saw something in him too.
All in all, the prop bets, maybe the Guillard fight, and maybe some of the TUF 9 contestant fights (if you are familiar with those guys) seem to be the best bets on this card. Of course these are just my opinions. Let me know what you think.
Go to BetUS.com for all your UFC, MMA, and sports betting.
By: Jack Bratcher