It’s heavily rumored that the Carlos Condit vs. Nick Diaz II fight will happen this summer, and it has been interesting to read the thoughts of people on how they think the fight will go for a second time. Condit fought pretty much exactly how he needed to fight in order to have a shot at defeating Diaz at UFC 143. Many fans criticized him for not getting into a slugfest with Diaz the same way that BJ Penn did back at UFC 137, and for ‘running’ the whole time on Saturday night. He fought a smart fight, because his chances of winning decrease significantly if he stands in the pocket and trades strikes against Diaz.
Can Condit execute the same gameplan to beat Nick Diaz in a rematch?
I’m reading from fans and pundits alike that it’ll pretty much be the same fight as it was the first time. I agree for the most part, but I believe that Diaz can make more adjustments to his gameplan compared to the changes that Condit can implement. The only significant change that Condit can make to his gameplan is to implore takedowns at some point in the fight as I first suggested in my preview. Then he has to ask himself if he wants to play in the guard of Nick Diaz? I think he would be ‘ok’ there as Condit is very skilled on the ground as well. The takedown defense of Diaz has always been suspect, and if he came forward with punches as Condit’s back got close to the cage it would be a prime opportunity to shoot for the takedown.
Diaz will likely look to cut the cage off more effectively the second go around because Condit was able to elude most of the firefights that Diaz likes to engage in as he backs his opponents into the cage. Diaz could also look to take the fight to the ground himself. He did so a few times in the first fight, but I don’t think he really committed to the takedown attempts either. It would be a challenge as his wrestling isn’t the best, but Condit’s takedown defense isn’t world class either. Condit threw a huge amount of kicks, so another possibility is that Diaz looks to catch one of those kicks and the pursue the takedown. We saw Diaz was able to take Condit down in the final round and then take his back and didn’t waste any time looking for the armbar. I’m sure he feels as though he has the advantage on the ground, so it’ll be interesting to see if Diaz commits to taking Condit down if indeed the rematch happens.If he’s successful, it would certainly take a big part of Condit’s success away in regards to his movement and not engaging in firefights on the feet.
What are your thoughts on the potential rematch since it looks as though it’s going to happen? I give the edge to Diaz, simply because he can make more adjustments. I thought he won the first fight three rounds to two. It would be very difficult for Condit to execute a gameplan at such a high level for the second time in my opinion. What say you?