UFC 166 Velasquez vs. Dos Santos goes down this Saturday at the Toyota Center in Houston Texas and features the third battle between UFC heavyweight champ Cain Velasquez and former champion Junior Dos Santos. In the co-main event undefeated Daniel Cormier meets heavy handed Roy Nelson. Our expert team has assembled to give you our thoughts on who wins and who loses.
John Dodson (14-6) vs. Darrell Montague (13-2)
Brian Furby (@bfurby): John Dodson
Josh Leduc (@CanadianMMA94) : John Dodson
Kelvin Hunt (@KelvinHuntMMA): Dodson is the second best flyweight in the world…Montague is a very good fighter….making his UFC debut….that along with the gap in speed and Dodson’s ability to keep the fight where he is most comfortable will be too much. Pick – Dodson via decision or TKO
Jan Gaetjens ( @TheRealJanLouis): The flyweight division almost exclusively belongs to Demetrious Johnson and John Dodson. The frenetic pace at which Dodson works should overwhelm the promotional newcomer Montague, and set in motion Dodson’s, presumably short, journey back to another title shot. Pick-Dodson by (T)KO
Gary Thomas (@GaryThomasMMA): Montague comes in with credibility and a solid resume but having never fought in the UFC and making his debut on a big time pay-per-view may be overwhelming. John Dodson has the skill set to be very successful as a flyweight. I think Dodson will be too much and takes this one. Pick – Dodson by TKO.
Jack Bratcher (@PROMMA): Because this is Montague’s UFC debut and Dodson has the big show experience I’m leaning toward Dodson via decision. But it would not surprise me if Montague pulled the upset, he was a legit force in the old Tachi days.
Gabriel Gonzaga (15-7) vs. Shawn Jordan (15-4)
Brian Furby: Shawn Jordan
Josh Leduc: Gabriel Gonzaga
Kevin Hunt: Jordan is the more athletic of the two heavyweights with good punching power. Gonzaga’s chin has failed him several times now….in fact six of his seven losses are via the TKO variety. I expect Jordan to win a decision or finish Gonzaga via TKO. Pick – Jordan via TKO
Jan Gaetjens: Picking Gabriel Gonzaga fights may be the bane of my MMA existence. Anytime Gonzaga steps in the Octagon, you have an equal chance of seeing a heavy handed elite grappler as you do an undisciplined fighter who’s over-eager to abandon his game plan. 2006 Gonzaga takes down Jordan and submits him by the second round; 2013 Gonzaga gets frustrated by Jordan’s takedown defense, gets sucked into a standup battle, and comes away the loser. Pick –Jordan by decision
Gary Thomas: Shawn Jordan may be hard to take down so I’m not looking for a submission in this encounter. I like Gonzaga on the feet to rough up Jordan. I think he should be able to put him away by TKO. Pick – Gabriel Gonzaga via TKO.
Jack Bratcher: Although I’m a Gonzaga “fan”, he is quite inconsistent and has a tendency to break when pressed too hard. Having said that, he can end the fight on the feet or on the ground at a moment’s notice. Jordan also has KO power. I don’t see this going the distance and I’m leaning toward Gonzaga via submission.
Diego Sanchez (24-5) vs. Gilbert Melendez (21-3)
Brian Furby: Gilbert Melendez
Josh Leduc: Gilbert Melendez
Kelvin Hunt: Sanchez is attempting to recapture glory as a lightweight. He failed to make weight in his last bid to make 155…weighing in at 158…Sanchez’s biggest attribute is his cardio and relentless nature. However, his days of simply willing himself to a win on those attributes may be gone. Melendez should be able to keep this fight on the feet and take the decision. Sanchez is incredibly durable and has only been stopped once(via TKO/cut). However, IF Melendez doesn’t come with his A game…don’t be surprised to see Sanchez make it a close fight. Pick – Gilbert Melendez
Jan Gaetjens: In his last outing, Melendez managed to very convincingly go the distance against Bendo, and showed no signs of ring rust after his post-Strikeforce layoff. I don’t expect Sanchez’s weight issues to be a factor this time around, but his ability to last fifteen minutes with Melendez will undoubtedly be put to the test. Pick – Melendez by decision.
Gary Thomas: Never pick against Diego. My counterpart Josh Leduc called this huge mismatch. C’mon kid. Sanchez has been exciting. Multiple fight of the night awards. I look for him to push the pace and make Melendez uncomfortable. I would love to see some sharp striking out of Diego. I think this is a fight that could turn the corner for him. Pick – Diego Sanchez by decision.
Jack Bratcher: I’m quite surprised at Gary’s pick of Sanchez. I think Gilbert will mop the floor with Diego. Diego’s time as a top contender has passed. Gilbert is on another level in my opinion. Gilbert via decision.
Daniel Cormier (12-0) vs. Roy Nelson (19-8)
Brian Furby: Daniel Cormier
Josh Leduc: Roy Nelson
Kelvin Hunt: Dumb fight for Cormier to take. However, he should have no problems with Nelson as he has better cardio and the ability to dictate where the fight takes place. Nelson has a puncher’s chance…and that’s about it…I look for Cormier to put Nelson against the cage and rough him up and possibly take Nelson down to unleash some ground and pound. Nelson’s a blackbelt in BJJ…but he’s not much of a threat off his back. Pick – Cormier via whatever he wants
Jan Gaetjens: Roy Nelson wins this fight one of two ways- either he clinches and holds on for dear life for three rounds, or he closes his eyes and happens to connect fist to chin. Outside of those marginal opportunities for victory, this fight is little more than another hoop for Cormier to jump through as he waits for a title shot. Pick -Cormier by decision
Gary Thomas: Daniel Cormier is talented and undefeated but I think this is a bad fight for him. Can he get Nelson against the cage and hold him there but who wants to see that. I like the one punch knockout power of Nelson and I am willing to bet on it. Go crazy Big Country. Pick – Roy Nelson via Knockout.
Jack Bratcher: Nelson has more power and could end this fight at any time. He can also submit Cormier. Having said that, I think this fight could look similar to what Cormier did to Josh Barnett. He’s going to pick Nelson apart… and his beard. Cormier via decision.
Main Event – UFC Heavyweight Championship
Junior Dos Santos (16-2) vs. Cain Velasquez (12-1)
Brian Furby: Cain Velasquez
Josh Leduc: Cain Velasquez
Kelvin Hunt: Simply…I thought Velasquez had to fight he perfect fight to beat JDS in the rematch this past December. That’s exactly what he did…and he won…however, the scary thing is that he still couldn’t finish JDS or keep him on the ground for extended periods of time even though he hurt him bad very early in fight. I think JDS comes into the rubbermatch with the ability to make more adjustments…he knows he has to be in tip top shape…which is the main thing…I also think he was a little overconfident going into the rematch since he knocked Velasquez out so quickly the first go round. I don’t think that’ll be the case on Saturday. I look for JDS to win a decision or hurt Velasquez with punches and finish him. Pick-Dos Santos via TKO.
Jan Gaetjens: Dos Santos managed to survive a five round assault in their last outing; however, don’t expect Saturday’s rubber match to go the distance. Velasquez’s wrestling credentials are self-evident, but one look at the rearranged faces of JDS and Bigfoot Silva after their run ins with Cain speak volumes about how far the AKA product’s striking has come. We won’t know until fight time whether or not the recent cut over JDS’s right eye will be a factor, but if Velasquez can reopen that laceration and obscure the Brazilian’s vision it will be next to impossible to defend the champ’s relentless low double leg. Pick-Velasquez by (T)KO.
Gary Thomas: Has JDS improved his takedown defense since the last meeting? Can he keep Cain in front of him so he can try to knock him out? I don’t know if there has been enough time for him to sharpen up. Will this mysterious cut play a factor? I think Cain has the blueprint to win. Not only will he win, he finishes JD. Pick – Cain Velasquez via TKO.
Jack Bratcher: Cain is too well rounded. The first fight was somewhat of a fluke with Cain getting caught on the back of the head/behind the ear. That can put anyone out (see GSP vs Serra). The “real” result took place in fight two with Cain winning a very dominant decision. Cain remains champ via decision.