Conor McGregor (19-3-0) will get another crack at Nate Diaz (20-10-0) at UFC 200 on July 9 in Las Vegas. Does McGregor have a chance to beat the UFC odds?
The UFC landscape got turned upside down when Conor McGregor was upset by Nate Diaz at UFC 196. The promotional plans for “The Notorious” McGregor, his aura and the aspirations of eventually holding three UFC titles were all gone.
Conor McGregor has been in rebuilding mode ever since and he will get his chance at redemption, which hasn’t sit well with UFC fans and experts alike. That said, the UFC knows that people will tune in, even if they complain all over the Internet before the fight.
Now that the main event for UFC 200 is set in stone, let’s recap what went down in UFC 196 and analyze what could happen in the sequel so we can know where to place our UFC picks.
Here We Go Again
It’s surprising that the UFC would book this rematch so soon after their first fight. Fans are usually not very welcoming of immediate rematches, and in a way the company sends the wrong message, subliminally telling fans that a surprise winner like Diaz and his breakout success was a fluke.
Would it have been better to get two fresh fights for McGregor and Diaz instead of this rematch? Probably. But the good news for bettors is that there’s usually a pattern with these rematches. Most of the time, the differences and similarities between the two fighters get exaggerated in these quick rematches. For example, decisive wins can turn into lopsided blowouts and competitive fights into controversial split decisions.
Online sportsbooks currently offer McGreggor anywhere between -110 and -145, with betting odds pricing Diaz as the -110 to +115 underdog, despite the fact that he proved victorious in their first pairing.
Can McGregor Solve Diaz This Time?
If we take this fight and apply the logic about rematches explained above we can understand that despite the loss, Connor McGregor did some damage at UFC 196, rendering Diaz a bloody mess before ultimately getting winded and losing via submission.
In defeat, McGregor showed that he’s quicker than Diaz and that he can get inside his long jab and land his left hand. Those small details will be valued while the cardio issues that slowed him down in the first round will be overlooked.
Prediction
McGregor’s loss to Diaz was more because of his approach, not because of an issue with his technique. The UFC 196 fight didn’t show that Conor McGregor doesn’t have what it takes to beat Nate Diaz, it evidenced that Diaz is a challenging matchup for him.
Conor McGregor might be outspoken but it can’t be denied that he is very smart and it’s safe to say that he will figure out how to adjust his fight plan to this specific opponent. His loss at UFC 196 will help him ahead of this rematch and I like his chances to emerge victorious at UFC 200.