The UFC on FOX 7 main event will feature the UFC lightweight title fight between champion Ben Henderson and former Strikeforce champion Gilbert Melendez. Henderson has proven he’s the number one lightweight fighter in the world, but this is the opportunity Melendez has been seeking since toiling in the shadows of Strikeforce against mediocre competition. Will Melendez prove himself on Saturday night? Let’s see how this one breaks down.
Gilbert Melendez (21-2) is coming off a split decision win over Josh Thomson in his last outing which took place in May 2012. He’s coming off a lengthy layoff due to a shoulder injury suffered late in 2012. Melendez has won 11 fights via TKO/KO and has never been finished in his MMA career. Melendez is a fairly well rounded fighter that likes to pressure his opponents while having good power in his hands.
Ben Henderson (18-2) is coming off a dominant unanimous decision victory over Nate Diaz who is a teammate of Melendez in December. Henderson has won eight fights via submission and two fights via TKO/KO. He’s very well rounded and likes to fight at a feverish pace which is one thing that excites me about this fight in general. He has only been finished once in his career via submission.
These fighters are relatively even on paper in terms of size and length. Henderson is the more accurate striker and probably has more tools on the feet since he relies on kicks quite a bit at times. Henderson is probably the better wrestler over all has he’s been more successful with his takedowns, but Melendez does defend takedowns at a slightly higher clip according to Fightmetric.
This fight will probably feature a little bit of everything from striking to takedowns, but the difference in this bout will come down to conditioning and who wins the transition game. I’d give the edge to Henderson in terms of conditioning as he has gone five rounds with no issues in three consecutive fights. I think the long layoff will come into play towards the later rounds for Melendez unless he can find a way to get Henderson out of there early.
Also, Melendez just has not looked that great in his past couple of fights. He has been fighting solid competition, but not at the same level as Henderson over the past year or so. The one thing we can’t measure is the ‘chip on the shoulder’ determination that Melendez may have as he makes his UFC debut. That could be a great driving force for him, or he could wilt under the pressure. Melendez does have the benefit of training with Diaz who just fought Henderson in his last fight, but I don’t expect that to make a huge difference in this fight.
I have to side with the champion in this one. I think this fight goes to the judges where Henderson will get the nod, but if it ends early that probably means that Melendez landed a huge strike and was able to finish Henderson via TKO.