The UFC 157 PPV event will feature a welterweight scrap on the main card between TUF winner Court McGee and UFC veteran Josh Neer. This will be the second fight to air and will be McGee’s welterweight debut after competing as a middleweight. Both fighters are in desperate need of a win after dropping their last two fights. Let’s see how this one breaks down.
Court McGee (13-3) comes into this fight off the unanimous decision loss to Nick Ring in what turned out to be a very close fight. His last two fights have been fairly close decision losses, but losses nonetheless. McGee has two wins via TKO/KO and seven wins via submission. McGee has attributes similar to Neer in that he’s scrappy and likes to bring the fight to his opponents. However, he should enjoy a size advantage and should be the better wrestler in this one.
Josh Neer (33-12-1) comes into this fight off a submission loss to Justin Edwards in October 2012. The usually durable Neer has been finished in his last two fights after winning six consecutive fights. Neer has won 17 fights via TKO/KO and 12 fights via submission. He has five losses via submission and has been knocked out twice. He’s a grinder that’s mentally tough but not blessed with a ton of athleticism who finds a way to win.
McGee is the betting favorite coming into this fight as high as -290 with Neer as the underdog at +222.
Those odds are about right. Both fighters are coming off losses, but McGee has been losing close decisions against arguably better competition whereas Neer has been finished by his opponents.
I think the majority of this fight will be spent in close quarters, either in the clinch or McGee working for takedowns against Neer. Neer defends takedowns at a 41% clip which McGee should be able to take advantage of the longer the fight goes. Neer is quite crafty with his guard off his back, so McGee will have to be weary with his top control on the ground.
If the fight remains on the feet, McGee is usually the busy fighter with his strikes as he lands strikes at a much higher rate. Neer usually prefers to pick his spots and is a little more accurate. Both fighters have good chins, so expect this one to be a grueling affair for the most.
I’m taking McGee in this one via decision.