Lyoto Machida (left) will face Ryan Bader at UFC on FOX 4

The UFC on FOX 4 co-main event will feature a light heavyweight bout between former champion Lyoto Machida and TUF winner Ryan Bader. This fight has title implications according to UFC President Dana White, so that adds another dynamic to this matchup. It’s also an interesting contrast of styles, so let’s see how this one breaks down.

Ryan Bader (14-2) comes into this fight off his big win over Rampage Jackson at UFC 144. Bader has won seven fights via TKO/KO and two fights via submission. Bader is a two time All-American wrestler at Arizona State University. He has big power in both hands and the ability to take opponents out with one punch. He does a decent job of transitioning from striking to takedowns, but isn’t elite at doing so. He’s not an accurate striker but does a good job of avoiding damage on the feet.

Lyoto Machida (17-3) comes into this fight off his submission loss in the title fight against Jon Jones at UFC 140. Machida has won six fights via TKO/KO and two fights via submission. Machida is a striker based in karate, but is also versed in jiu-jitsu and sumo. He’s an unorthodox striker with great accuracy while displaying great takedown defense.

Our sponsor Top Bet has Machida as the betting favorite at (-310) and Bader is the underdog at (+250).

I have to agree with those odds. I think Bader has a puncher’s chance of winning this fight due to his power, but that’s about it in my opinion.

The difference in this fight will be the speed and footwork of Machida. He should be able to keep the fight standing and use his unorthodox striking to pick Bader apart. Bader likes to throw the huge overhand right and the lunging left hook, but he’s relatively slow and will be countered with straight punches from Machida. I don’t see this fight going to the ground much at all, and expect Machida to force Bader to come forward to press the action. Bader coming forward isn’t in his best interest as Machida is great at counter-striking.

I think Machida takes this bout via decision or takes Bader out via TKO/KO.

Leave a Reply