ProMMAnow.com UFC 142 staff picks

It’s that time again. It’s fight time, which means it’s staff picks time, time to look at the betting odds and make our predictions for “UFC 142: Aldo vs. Mendes” going down Saturday night, Jan. 14, in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

Gabriel Gonzaga (12-6) vs. Ednaldo Oliveira (13-0-1, 1 NC)

JOSH CROSS: I was a little surprised when I saw that Gonzaga is the favorite going into this fight. I have to disagree with the odds on this one. I don’t see either fighter having much of an advantage over the other on the ground, so I think it comes to who is better on their feet. I have to give the edge to Oliveira who is known for making quick work of his opponents and knocking them out in the first round. I think Oliveira will be looking to end the fight quickly and I don’t think Gonzaga will be able to weather the storm. Pick: Oliveira via TKO.

JACK BRATCHER: Ednaldo Oliveira is undefeated, but this is also his UFC debut and he has never faced the caliber of opponents Gonzaga is used to fighting. As a training partner of Junior Dos Santos, eight of Oliveira’s 13 victories have come via knockout. Have you ever watched Gonzaga peel a banana or tie up a loaf of bread? The guy is a genius. He’s been a favorite fighter of mine for a long time. But he doesn’t have the greatest chin. And he does not do well against good boxers, which Oliveira is. It is a shame, being Brazilian himself, Gonzaga is going all the way back to Brazil to get knocked out, but I don’t see this one going out of the first and he’s probably going to sleep. Oliveira by knockout.

Editor’s Note: If you are a regular reader, you know we normally just do picks for the main card. We had a special request this time from a reader to make picks for the Gonzaga-Oliveira fight on the prelims. Because everyone already had their picks in when we got the request not everyone had time to participate. However, from now on, we will add one prelim fight to our picks as requested. Thank you for reading.

Edson Barboza (9-0) vs. Terry Etim (15-3)

JOSH CROSS: It should be no secret especially after his last fight that Etim will be looking to take this fight to the ground. I just don’t think he’ll have the success that he wants when it comes to submitting Barboza and that’s why I think at the end of the night Barboza remains undefeated. Pick: Barboza via Decision.

BRIAN FURBY: Terry Etim.

RICHARD MANN: In this battle of strikers, Barboza is probably the favorite. Etim might have the reach, but the Brazilian’s advantage in the kicking game should be able to neutralize that. However, this will be a close fight either way. Barboza by decision.

KELVIN HUNT: Barboza outstrikes Etim with strong leg kicks and counters to win a unanimous decision as Etim will more than likely will not be able to take him down.

JACK BRATCHER: This is a fun fight. Etim is one of the best Brits to ever grace the Octagon but Barboza remains undefeated for a reason. His last two wins have both been Fight of the Night, scoring decision wins over Ross Pearson and Anthony Njokuani. Barboza via decision.

Erick Silva (13-1, 1 NC) vs. Carlo Prater (29-10-1)

JOSH CROSS: Silva comes into this fight as a huge favorite, and while his 40-second knockout win in his last fight was impressive, I’m still skeptical about all of the hype surrounding him. Sure Prater is a late replacement, but Prater was already training for a fight when he got the call from the UFC. I’m curious to see how Silva does on the ground against Prater and I’m also interested to see how Silva’s stamina is throughout this fight. I think Prater could very well pull off the upset in this bout, but I’m going to go with Silva just because I think his advantage standing outweighs any advantage Prater might possibly have on the ground. Pick: Silva via Decision.

BRIAN FURBY: Erick Silva.

RICHARD MANN: UFC fans might not be taken with Silva. After all, his debut lasted only 40 seconds. Prater might give him a bit more of a challenge, but really this is just a chance for Silva to show off how good he really is. The veteran is a solid fighter, but Silva should have very little trouble working him over on the ground or on the feet. Silva by decision.

KELVIN HUNT: Erick Silva via TKO.

JACK BRATCHER: Prater is a late replacement for Siyar The Killer but according to the oddsmakers he is more like cannon fodder. They’re probably right. Silva looked great in his UFC debut in Rio back in August with a 40 second KO of Luis Ramos — who was also a late replacement. Look for a repeat. Silva by TKO.

Rousimar Palhares (13-3) vs. Mike Massenzio (13-5)

JOSH CROSS: While both fighters have BJJ black belts I think Palhares holds a distinct advantage over Massenzio on the ground, and I think that’s where this fight will be decided. If I’m right then I think Palhares comes away with a decisive win. Pick: Palhares via Submission.

BRIAN FURBY: Rousimar Palhares.

RICHARD MANN: Massenzio should try to use his wrestling in reverse and keep this fight on the feet. However, that will be easier said than done. Palhares is not a dynamite wrestler, but fighters who can use leglocks make even good wrestlers look lost. Look for the Brazilian to latch on a lower body submission and finish this one early. Palhares by submission.

KELVIN HUNT: Palhares via taking a limb home.

JACK BRATCHER: Massenzio is a BJJ black belt but Palhares is a BJJ god. It will be interesting to see if Massenzio  wants to test himself on the ground with Toquinho or wants to keep it standing.  Palhares via submission.

Vitor Belfort (20-9) vs. Anthony Johnson (10-3)

JOSH CROSS: Johnson is in for a big test right off the bat as he makes his middleweight debut in this fight. I think Johnson will look to take Belfort down fairly quickly and make him work on the ground. If Johnson can do that I think Belfort could become tired thus giving Johnson the opening he needs to finish the fight. Pick: Johnson via TKO.

BRIAN FURBY: Anthony Johnson.

RICHARD MANN: I normally don’t like to talk about someone’s size advantage in MMA. If you make the weight, than you can fight in that weight class. However, Johnson missed weight at 170 pounds more often than any other fighter in the sport. It will be interesting to see how he will do in his new weight class. Will his power transfer? Will he still be able to get takedowns? A fight with Belfort should go a long way towards answering these questions. The former champion should be the better striker and should be able to land at will. However, he has always struggled when faced with adversity. If Johnson can work some clinches and takedowns, he may force Belfort to fold. Belfort by TKO.

KELVIN HUNT: Probably the toughest fight to call. If Johnson uses his wrestling like he did against Hardy he can comfortable win this fight as Belfort offers very little off his back by way of submissions. He does have sweeps though, but I doubt he can overcome the size and wrestling base of Johnson. I’m go with Johnson but Belfort could starch him quickly if Johnson isn’t careful. Johnson is capable of putting Belfort away late as well. I’m go with Johnson via decision though.

JACK BRATCHER: So what in the world happened to Anthony Johnson to make him come in 11 pounds over weight? He had trouble making welterweight, now trouble with middleweight… Does this mean he should just fight at light heavyweight or was there a serious problem in training? I’m sure it will all come out sooner or later but his job seems to be on the line, win or lose, according to reports. Fortunately, I had the privilege of making my pick after my cohorts so most of them made their picks before the weigh ins. Not that it really matters though… If Johnson does have an actual ailment and it was that serious, he wouldn’t be fighting. He likely had an issue that kept him from doing enough cardio. The question is how will that affect him in the fight? Personally, I think Johnson is too young, too athletic, too new school, (wait, did Dave Camarillo say that same thing on our Podcast last night?) has too good wrestling and more tools in his striking belt than Vitor. I don’t know what issues he has coming into this fight but he looks in good shape. He’s chiseled and is a big guy. Johnson via TKO.

José Aldo (20-1) vs. Chad Mendes (11-0)

JOSH CROSS: It’s no secret that Mendes will be looking to take Aldo to the ground early and often in this fight. While that is much easier said than done, I think Mendes is perhaps the most talented opponent Aldo has faced when it comes to wrestling skills. That being said, while I do think Mendes can and will give Aldo some problems, I just don’t see him dethroning the champ. I think Aldo will be able to avoid the take down and use his striking and leg kicks to keep distance between him and Mendes. Mendes does not want to stand with Aldo, but I think he’ll be forced to in the fight, and that’s why I think Aldo will come away with the win. Pick: Aldo via Decision.

BRIAN FURBY: Chad Mendes.

RICHARD MANN: Defensive wrestling really has two parts in MMA. A lot of fighters can stop an initial shot, but only the best can break away from an opponent and get totally free. Against Kenny Florian, Aldo showed solid wrestling, but still spent way too much time clinched and stuck to the cage. Mendes has appear hesitant striking in his short MMA career, but he does do enough to set up his takedowns. It should take only a few solid one to win this fight. Also, of course, is still an extremely dangerous opponent and could finish the fight at any time. Mendes by decision.

KELVIN HUNT: When this fight was first announced I gave Mendes a shot at beating Aldo. However, the closer I get to the fight the more I realize he has to fight a perfect fight to win a decision with hsi wrestling. Aldo’s stamina could come into question if Mendes is able to clinch and make him defend takedowns constantly….buuuuut Aldo has been training with a huge lightweight in Gray Maynard so he should be well prepared. If Mendes can avoid tons of damage early in the fight he could possibly steal the last three rounds if Aldo begins to slow down. However, it’s possible that Aldo takes him out early or causes so much damage that(i.e. Faber fight) that he’s not explosive enough to take Aldo down later in the fight. I’m going Aldo via TKO rd. 2. He will want to perform well in his home country.

JACK BRATCHER: I don’t think this fight is that complex. Mendes is going to use just enough striking to compliment his wrestling and set up takedowns. He might even hurt Aldo with a big shot. I haven’t been overly impressed with Aldo since coming to the UFC and I think a strong wrestler like Mendes could be the one to beat him. Mendes keeps his undefeated record  in tact, moving to 12-0. Mendes by decision.