Well, the UFC lightweight division got thrown for a loop last night when Ben Henderson dominated Jim Miller at the UFC on Versus 5 event in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Miller was in line to get a title shot against the winner of the rubbermatch between Frankie Edgar and Gray Maynard had he defeated Henderson. Right now there are 3 lightweights that can make a claim to being somewhat deserving of a title shot, so let’s break it down and see who the real #1 contender should be. The three fighters are:

  • Melvin Guillard
  • Ben Henderson
  • Clay Guida

Melvin Guillard has won 5 fights in a row with three finishes during that time span. He hasn’t beaten any top lightweights except Evan Dunham who was considered to be #10 or right in that area at the time of their fight, and he finished him in under 3 minutes. He is scheduled to face Joe Lauzon at UFC 136 who isn’t a top lightweight, but if he destroys Lauzon it would be hard to deny him a shot at the title with 6 straight wins.

-Ben Henderson has won seven out of his last 8 with the lone loss coming against Anthony Pettis at the final WEC event. He has wins over Donald Cerrone(who’s on a roll right now), Mark Bocek(who’s decent), and Jim Miller who he absolutely dominated and who was considered to be #6 or so in the world.

Clay Guida has won 4 fights in a row with 3 finishes in that time span. He hasn’t beaten any top lightweights except Anthony Pettis was was around that #10 spot or just outside it for the most part. He won the fight but it wasn’t the most exciting performance ever either.

Guillard and Guida will not fight one another because they are from the same camp. Guillard already has a fight lined up against Lauzon, so it’s only natural for Henderson and Guida to be matched up next in my opinion. I think the way Guillard has won is more impressive than what Guida has been able to accomplish and I also think he matches up better with either Maynard or Edgar. If Guida were to get past Henderson it would certainly open my eyes in regards to how he would do stylistically against Maynard or Edgar. Guillard fights Lauzon the same night that Edgar fights Maynard, so that fight would naturally fall into place if Guillard won and no other injuries came about from Edgar/Maynard.

Then the winner of Henderson/Guida would get the next shot at the title after Guillard if he takes care of business against Lauzon.

Thoughts?

3 thoughts on “Post UFC on Versus 5: Who deserves UFC lightweight title shot?”
  1. Kelvin, I think you’re spot-on here. Tough to give Bendo a shot given his recent loss to Pettis. Tough to give Guida a shot, given the seeming discontent surrounding his inability to finish a fight. If Guillard impresses, he makes sense – unless he faces the winner of Bendo/Guida. But that would put the LW belt on ice for awhile. Not that the UFC is averse to that.

    Either way, let’s not discount the possibility that we see Edgar/Maynard VII or whatever number they’re on now.

  2. Here’s a post I made on FO about the situation. (BTW I completely agree with your assesment). I just think the way fan reaction is going right now, we’re fighting a losing battle:

    “Yep it seems my attempts at hyping Guillard-Henderson for #1 contender is dying out. Oh well.

    I Cannot complain about Guida-Henderson. That fight would be non-stop.

    Guida-Henderson for the next shot at title. Guillard/Lauzon winner fights winner of Masvidal/Melendez. Miller and Pettis fight. Step 2 __. Step 3 profit.”

  3. Thanks guys…@Edub…I’m not factoring in Melendez because he won’t come over until early 2012 once they merge….

    @Mike…I think I recall someone(maybe Dana) saying there would be no fourth fight between Maynard/Edgar…I find that hard to believe if it’s anything like last time.

    Thanks for reading and commenting guys..much appreciated.

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