The Strikeforce: Overeem vs. Werdum event this weekend will obviously feature a heavyweight showdown between top heavyweights Alistair Overeem and Fabricio Werdum. It’ll be a rematch from a 2006 fight in which Werdum won via submission in the PRIDE 2006 Openweight GP tournament.
Alistair Overeem is the Strikeforce heavyweight champion and comes into this fight with a career record of (34-11) with 19 wins via submission and 14 wins via TKO/KO. Overeem hasn’t lost since 2007, a knockout loss to fellow Strikeforce GP participant Sergei Kharitonov. That is the only loss Overeem has suffered since deciding to move to the heavyweight division permanently after competing as a light heavyweight early in his career. He is the only MMA fighter to win the K-1 World Grand Prix Championship. Overeem is a huge heavyweight but very athletic for his size with incredible power, and is also well versed in submissions as evident by the large number of wins via submission.
Fabricio Werdum comes into this fight with an overall record of (14-4) with 8 wins via submission and 4 wins via TKO/KO. Werdum has won three fights in a row since losing to UFC standout Junior dos Santos via KO back in 2008. Werdum became the first heavyweight to legitimately defeat the best heavyweight of all time Fedor Emelianenko, whom Werdum submitted in less than a minute and a half. Werdum is a submission specialist that has enjoyed a large amount of success in the prestigious ADCC grappling tournaments. However, he also has a respectable muay thai striking game as well.
Bodog has Overeem as the betting favorite at (-500) with Werdum the underdog at (+300).
I’m surprised that Werdum is that large of an underdog, but Overeem has looked unstoppable the last couple of years. However, Werdum will arguably be the best heavyweight that Overeem has faced since permanently moving to the heavyweight division. It’ll be no secret that Werdum would like to get this fight to the ground since his jiu-jitsu is a notch or two better than Overeem’s. However, he must not end up on the bottom with Overeem on top of him because Overeem is well versed in submissions and would probably be difficult to submit because of that and the size difference. Werdum will need to take Overeem down from the clinch position or possibly use the cage to trip him to the canvas if possible. Werdum in top position could certainly put Overeem in some uncomfortable positions, but I’ not sure if he could keep him there. If he’s not able to take Overeem down, Werdum will need to attack Overeem with leg kicks and Werdum’s leg kicks are pretty good. Overeem rarely checked them in his K-1 fights, and I don’t see MMA being any different. This could slow Overeem down and give Werdum space to avoid the power of Overeem in close.
The easiest path to victory for Overeem is to keep the fight standing and use his powerful striking to possibly knock Werdum out. We saw Werdum crumble from an uppercut by Junior dos Santos and Overeem is arguably the heavyweight with the most knockout power. Overeem is very patient and will allow Werdum to get his strikes off to land a few of his own. I think Overeem should be able to avoid Werdum’s takedown attempts. Also, be aware that Overeem has a DEADLY standing guillotine choke, but it’ll be difficult to submit Werdum.
I think Overeem knocks Werdum out by countering Werdum’s kicks with a big overhand right to advance to the next round of the GP.