Josh Barnett will face Brett Rogers in Dallas, Texas

The Strikeforce: Overeem vs. Werdum card is set to take place this weekend in Dallas, Texas. It is a nice looking card on paper with a co-main event of Josh Barnett vs. Brett Rogers, which is a quarterfinals match in the Strikeforce heavyweight grand prix.

Brett Rogers comes into this fight with a career record of (11-2) with 10 wins via TKO/KO and one win via decision. That decision win came about in his last outing as he defeated Rueben Villareal, a fighter with a losing record of (19-21). Rogers had lost two in a row before the Villareal fight, getting knocked out by both Fedor Emelianenko and Alistair Overeem. Rogers is primarily a brawler with good power in his hands.

Josh Barnett is a former UFC heavyweight champion coming into this fight with a career record of (29-5) with 17 wins via submission and 7 via TKO/KO. Barnett hasn’t lost since 2006, a decision loss to the then #2 heavyweight in the world Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira. Barnett has only lost to three guys in his career and those fighters are Nogueira, Pedro Rizzo, and three times to Mirko Cro Cop. Barnett was thought to be a top five heavyweight, but tested positive for steroids for the third time back in 2009 and has suffered in the rankings due to that. He’s fought in Japan and Australia since the last steroid incident and this will be his first fight in the United States since January 2009. Barnett is well versed in submissions and catch wrestling with the ability to dirty box his opponents against the cage.

Bodog has Barnett as the betting favorite at (-365) and Rogers as the underdog at (+285).

If Rogers is to have any chance in this fight, he’ll need to keep the fight standing as Barnett will have a significant edge if this fight goes to the ground. Rogers will need to be patient and not over commit to his strikes which would allow Barnett to close the distance to either clinch or take him down. If taken down Rogers should look to get right back up to his feet and waste no time trying to play the guard game with someone like Barnett. If Barnett initiates the clinch, Rogers should force him into the cage and try to flurry with strikes after disengaging from the clinch.

Josh Barnett can win this fight anywhere he wants as long as he doesn’t get caught with a huge bomb from Rogers. The safest route to victory for Barnett is obviously to take Rogers down and exploit  his weak ground game. Barnett should be able to close the distance and take Rogers down or possibly put him against the cage and trip Rogers to the ground. Once there I would expect Barnett to eventually mount Rogers and pound him out or force Rogers to give up his back and get the rear naked choke.

Josh Barnett should advance to the next round of the tournament.

Leave a Reply