Let’s take a look at the TUF 10 Finale fight lines. Here are the betting odds from BetUS.com. If you can get the nerve to lay down some coin (I rarely can) on this card, there is some real potential here to make some money. Remember when it comes to betting, it’s all about the odds. You may actually think one person will win, but due to the odds, you will place money on the underdog because the payout is so good. Make sense? For instance, in reality Jon Jones probably has the edge on Hamill, but because Hamill is a +200 underdog, I would take that bet, because he does have a good chance at winning. Most of you know this I’m sure.
•(TUF 10 FINALS) Roy Nelson -220 vs. Brendan Schaub +175
This seems about right. Schaub has a puncher’s chance, and he hits hard, but from what I’ve seen his boxing does not look as technical as an Arlovski. I think Roy will be too experienced for him, and he will do what he does best, take Schaub down and either submit or pound him out. Roy and his pretty hair should win this one.
•Jon Jones -260 vs. Matt Hamill +200
The odds makers must see Hamill as handicapped. And while he is deaf, this heightens the awareness of his other four senses. Because of this he will be able to pick up on Jon Jones’ scent and know where Jones will move even before Jones knows (either that or he will taste Jones’ sweat which will produce the same result). Hamill is strong and hits hard, and his wrestling should negate Jones’ wrestling. Put some coin on Hamill and leave me a tip IF you win.
•Frank Edgar -700 vs. Matt Veach +450
Matt Veach has about as much chance of beating Frankie Edgar as Roy Nelson does of eating a salad for dinner. Leave this one alone.
•Marcus Jones -350 vs. Matt Mitrione +250
Interesting fight. It really all depends on what these guys have been doing since taping the show. Big Baby obviously has the ground advantage and Mitrione is a big galoot who can knock yo’ ass out. I do think Jones will win, however, it might be worth putting a little money on Mitrione just in case. I know that helped a lot.
•Houston Alexander -260 vs. Kimbo Slice +200
From what Kimbo said on yesterday’s conference call, he has been having problems with his weight cut. He said he’s already at weight but it has been a hard cut for him. As always, Kimbo has a puncher’s chance, but probably not enough to lay any money down to be honest. Most fans who like Kimbo really want him to succeeed in MMA, but I just don’t think it’s in the cards to be honest.
•James McSweeney -120 vs. Darrill Schoonover -110
Odds like these means they think it’s a damn close match-up and basically a toss up. I think Schoonover will win. He got called back to active duty in the Army and probably would like to make a statement before he leaves. Even if he wins though, he won’t be fighting again anytime soon. Leave this one alone, the payout sucks no matter who wins.
•Mark Bocek -450 vs. Joe Brammer +325
Both guys are great submission fighters but Bocek has been fighting at a much higher level. Bocek has won his last two fights inside the Octagon, and his only losses have been to Frankie Edgar and Mac Danzig. I really don’t see Brammer winning this fight. However, any time you have an undefeated fighter like Brammer making his UFC debut it is a wild card to see how they will perform on the big stage. The odds are against him, and it might be worth placing a little money on him just in case.
•John Howard -250 vs. Dennis Hallman +200
John Howard talked to us this past week about how this is the biggest fight of his career. This will be Hallman’s first fight in the UFC in four years. This is one of the most intriguing fights on the card to me. Hallman is a master on the ground but Howard’s wrestling is good enough where he should not get submitted. And Howard is going to have the advantage standing. At first, I thought the oddsmakers were not giving Hallman enough credit, but if you look at his record he is on a nice win streak, but he really hasn’t fought anyone of significance in years. His last “big” fight was a loss to Jorge Rivera at UFC 55 in 2005. It will all depend on how hard Hallman has been training and if he’s been improving his stand up. Either way, it may be worth putting some money on Hallman just in case. It’s a good payout.
•Brian Stann -140 vs. Rodney Wallace +110
Undefeated Rodney “Sho Nuff The Master” Wallace (9-0) makes his UFC debut against former Marine Brian Stann. Wallace is 3x high school state wrestling champ and a 2x freestyle state champ. He will be looking to get the fight to the ground against the heavy handed Brian Stann. Stann does well against strikers but Soszynski showed the holes in his ground game. Personally, I would put a few dollars on Wallace. Wallace has a win over Mike Brown (okay not THAT Mike Brown).
•Jon Madsen +325 vs. Justin Wren -450
We interviewed Madsen a few weeks ago. He lives at the fighter dorms at the H.I.T. Squad and trains daily with Matt Hughes, Robbie Lawler, and their team. I would say Justin has better training partners and has probably progressed more than Madsen since they’ve been out of the house. They are both great wrestlers but I think Justin will have the advantage striking. The oddsmakers seem to think Madsen is a huge underdog. Once again, if you have some money to play with, the payout is significant enough, and the match-up close enough where personally, I would lay about $50 bucks on Madsen if I had it to spare. I do think Wren will win but I think it’s a little closer than the odds show.
Disclaimer: This post is not to advocate betting or gambling. It is only for entertainment. Unless, of course you want to. Seriously, it’s your money, do what you want to with it. However, be sure to know the laws in your home state about online (and offline) gambling. And don’t blame us if you lose your house, job, car, wife, family, and end up living under a bridge. But if you win, just remember who gave you the good tips!
By: Jack Bratcher