Recap
When I needed a big weekend to keep the percentage above 80, I failed. I ended up going 12-5 (1NC). That brings my picking record to 79-22 (10NC) which is a picking rate of 78%. This weekend we take a look at the next Strikeforce Challengers card as well as this year’s ADCC tournament.
Strikeforce Challengers “Kennedy vs. Cummings”
Tim Kennedy (9-0) vs. Zak Cummings (10-0)
Expect Tim Kennedy to win this battle between prospects. Kennedy will have success by taking Cummings down and implementing his ground game. Cummings has been impressive in his MMA career, but Kennedy will give him his first loss.
Pick = Tim Kennedy
Ray Sefo (1-0) vs. Kevin Jordan (11-7)
Kevin Jordan’s most significant win in years came against Pat Smith. Ray Sefo is a much better striker, and he will win easily. Will Sefo parlay this win into a successful MMA career? I don’t think so.
Pick = Ray Sefo
Tyron Woodley (5-0) vs. Zach Light (4-8)
Former University of Missouri wrestler, Tyron Woodley, is the brightest prospect that Strikeforce has. It is good to see that they are testing him with a fighter like Zach Light. You really learn a lot about a prospect when they fight a guy with twice as many losses as wins…
Pick = Tyron Woodley
Daniel Cormier (0-0) vs. Gary Frzaier (0-0)
As a world-class wrestler, Daniel Cormier will have a distinct advantage over the normal debuting fighter. The two-time Olympian could not choose a better camp to train with. Although he has only been there a short time, AKA will turn him into a quality MMA fighter. He did not compete at the 2008 games, because he was hospitalized after weighing in under the 211.5-pound limit, so this fight will be at heavyweight. Also, I’m giving some love to myself for being the first to break the news on Cormier coming to MMA.
Pick = Daniel Cormier
Levi Avera (12-5) vs. Paul Bradley (10-1)
Paul Bradley is a former NCAA all-American, but he may never be an elite MMA fighter. He is in line for a win here. Avera has losses to Ron Faircloth and Brian Gassaway. Expect Bradley to control the fight from top position and take home the decision.
Pick = Paul Bradley
Action Fight League – Rumble at the Rock
Crafton Wallace (17-3-1) vs. Danny Babcok (5-2)
A veteran of the UFC and the WCL, Crafton Wallace is a devastating striker. Two of his three losses have come against top fighters Nate Marquart and Martin Kampmann. Danny Babcok will look to get the fight to the ground. If he can’t Wallace should be able to end the night quickly.
Pick = Crafton Wallace
Steve Bruno (12-5) vs. Clayton McKinney (3-1)
American Top Team’s Steve Bruno may never crack the higher levels of MMA. However, he is still able to dominate on this level. Look for Bruno to get back on track with a decision.
Pick = Steve Bruno
M-1 Challenge 19 Semi-finals
Delson Heleno (15-5) vs. Fabio Nascimento (10-4)
This is a solid match up between two quality grapplers. Delson Heleno will have a slight edge in both the striking and grappling. Look for him to come home with the decision.
Pick = Delson Heleno
Gerson Cordeiro (4-7-1) vs. Givanildo Santana (13-1)
This fight is an easy one to call. Gerson Cordeiro is clearly not on this level. The real question in, will Giva Santana pull of another armbar? In 14 fights he has won 12 by armbar. In his last fight, he won by a different submission for the first time.
Pick = Givanildo Santana
Pedro Ribeiro (5-0) vs. Shane del Rosario (7-0)
Shane del Rosario is a serious striker. He deserves to be fighting on bigger shows than this. Apparently he has a deal with Strikeforce, but we may never see him.
Pick = Shane del Rosario
Rob Broughton (10-5-1) vs. Akhmed Sultanov (8-3)
There is a big jump between top level and mid-level heavyweights. There is also a jump between good regional fighters and brawlers. Rob Broughton is going to win here, but that doesn’t mean he is a fighter to get excited about.
Pick = Rob Broughton
G-Force Fights – Bad Blood 2
Alexis Vila (5-0) vs. Cody Bell (7-6)
It is always nice to see some flyweight action in MMA. Alexis Vila won a bronze medal for Cuba in freestyle wrestling at the 1996 games. So far in MMA, he has been untouchable. A win here should set him up to move to the WEC when they add the flyweight division.
Pick = Alexis Vila
Art of War 14 – Ground Zero
Andy Wang (7-7) vs. Atsuhiro Tsuboi (6-12-3)
Everyone’s favorite TUF ronin returns to action here. Wang is an easy fighter to mock, but he does have skills on the ground. Expect Wang to submit lifetime journeyman Atsushiro Tsuboi, but don’t expect Wang to do much else in his career.
Pick = Andy Wang
Rolles Gracie (2-0) vs. Peter Graham (0-2)
This fight takes MMA back to its roots. Rolles Gracie will play the roll of grappler, while Peter Graham will be the striker. With the exception of Hiroshi Izumi’s debut, almost always grapplers take these fights. The real question here is where is Rolles Gracie going after this? Will he become a serious MMA prospect?
Pick = Rolles Gracie
Simeon Thoresen (11-1) vs. Michael Costa (9-5)
Simeon Thoresen is Dream lightweight champion Joachim Hansen’s top student. Michael Costa has fought in Sengoku. If Costa can keep the fight on the feet he will give Thoresen problems. However, at some point Thoresen is going to take the fight to the ground and win by submission.
Pick = Simeon Thoresen
Abu Dhabi Combat Club
Superfight
Robert Drysdale vs. Ronaldo Souza
Although he doesn’t have his own Tapout commercial, Jacare is going to win the superfight. Drysdale may have the better skills on the mat, but Jacare will be able to score with takedowns and control where the match takes place.
Pick = Ronaldo Souza
Under 65.9 kg
Former WEC title challenger Rani Yahya is the clear favorite in this division. However, a relative unknown grappler recently submitted him. Leo Vieira is also a top talent. This is going to be Jeff Glover’s year. He competes year round and has improved each and every year.
Pick = Jeff Glover
Under 76.9 kg
Despite losing Georges St. Pierre, this is still a very exciting division. In addition to favorite Marcelo Garcia, there are also up and comers like Kron Gracie and Ben Askren. Expect Garcia to once again dominate the competition and bring home another tournament crown.
Pick = Marcelo Garcia
Under 87.9 kg
Braulio Estima is probably the favorite in this division, but Andre Galvao is going to pull it out. Although Galvao has started training for MMA as well as grappling, he is a very physical grappler. His style lends itself well to the two-day tournament.
Pick = Andre Galvao
Under 98.9 kg
Xande Ribeiro is one of the best grapplers in the world. This weight class presents some challenges, but Ribeiro will finish the weekend with an ADCC championship.
Pick = Xande Ribeiro
Over 99 kg
I don’t pick against Jeff Monson. He seems to be specifically made for ADCC. This year will be tough, but he will pull it out. Don’t expect exciting matches, but do expect him to win.
Pick = Jerr Monson
Women’s Under 60 kg
After taking third in 2007, this is Megumi Fujii’s year. Kyra Gracie is out, but that does not mean there are not other challenges. Hillary Williams and Sasyaka Shioda will give Fujii a serious run, but this is her year. Let’s hope this convinces Strikeforce to add smaller women’s weight classes.
Pick = Megumi Fujii
Women’s Over 60 kg
Lana Stefanac will have a size advantage over all of her opponents. In addition she is a very skilled grappler. This combination makes her the obvious pick in this division.
Pick = Lana Stefanac