The UFC 196 PPV is slated to take place Saturday night in Las Vegas at the MGM Grand Garden Arena, and Conor McGregor will look to bolster his name even more with a win over the always tough Nate Diaz.
McGregor is undefeated in the UFC, the world featherweight champion, and a huge betting favorite going into this fight. Diaz is as high as +410 at 5Dimes, meaning you bet $100 to win $410.
There’s value there in my opinion. Let’s take a look at how Conor McGregor could lose to Nate Diaz.
The biggest contributing factor short of Nate Diaz taking this fight on two weeks notice is Nate Diaz’s ability to pressure his opponents.
This will be the first opponent McGregor has faced in the UFC that will likely not move backwards much. Diaz is a volume striker with length and good chin. The smack talk that McGregor uses inside the cage will not affect Diaz, as he’s usually the one talking smack to his opponents.
I’m sure we’ll see a double finger or two throughout the fight if not before it begins. Diaz lives off that type of emotion. Just go back to his fight against Donald Cerrone, or even his last fight against Michael Johnson.
He talked both of them right out of their games and beat the brakes off both. The biggest weakness in Diaz’s game is his vulnerability to leg kicks. McGregor rarely uses those, often relying more on push kicks to the body or spinning attacks towards the head. However, McGregor is a student of the game and very well may attack the legs of Diaz.
The longer the fight goes, the stronger Diaz usually gets with his pressure style. How will McGregor react if the fights gets to the third or fourth rounds and Diaz is still there talking smack and hitting him from range?
Will he began to second guess himself the way Ronda Rousey did against Holly Holm? Will McGregor’s power travel up to 170 pounds?
Can McGregor survive on the ground with Diaz should the fight go there? Both of McGregor’s losses are via submission. Those fights were years ago, but Diaz will arguably have the best jiu-jitsu he’s faced in the UFC.
There’s lots of variables, but if the short notice/lack of real training camp isn’t a factor? Don’t sleep on Nate Diaz on Saturday night.