The UFC 157 PPV portion of the card will open up with a welterweight bout between Josh Koscheck and Strikeforce import Robbie Lawler. Actually, Lawler will be returning to the UFC for the first time since 2004 at UFC 50.
He has gone (11-6) in that time span, became the EliteXC middleweight champion, and fought for the Strikeforce middleweight title against Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza in a losing effort. He has lost three of his last four and will look to right the ship against a perennial top 10 welterweight. Let’s see how this one breaks down.
Robbie Lawler (19-9, 1NC) comes into this bout off the unanimous decision loss to Lorenz Larkin in July 2012. As I mentioned, he has lost three of his last four and will look to rejuvenate his career with a move back to welterweight. It’s hard to believe he’s only 30 years old as it feels like he’s been around forever. He has 16 wins via TKO/KO and one submission win to his credit. He has been submitted in five of his nine career losses. Lawler is a brawler for the most part. If he can keep fights standing he can knock anybody out with power punches. However, history does not bode well for him in this matchup. Fighters like Koscheck with wrestling backgrounds have given Lawler fits during his career. He needs to influence Koscheck to fight with emotions and engage in striking exchanges and negate his wrestling in this fight.
Josh Koscheck (17-6) comes into this bout off the split decision loss to Johny Hendricks in May 2012. Koscheck was expected to face Jake Ellenberger at UFC 151, but pulled out of the bout with a back injury. Of course, UFC 151 went on to be canceled, but Koscheck has remained out of action until now. He has five wins via TKO/KO and five wins via submission in his career. Koscheck is one of the best wrestlers to transition into MMA, but has abandoned his wrestling roots in the latter parts of his career in favor of going for knockouts. That strategy has probably cost him a couple of wins. He’ll need to fight smart against Lawler, because back-to-back losses at this stage of his career would not be a good look.
Koscheck is a huge betting favorite going into this bout with odds as high as -525 with Lawler coming in at +385.
Those odds are about right provided Koscheck fights the smart fight. Both fighters are coming off pretty long layoffs which could be a factor. Historically, Koscheck has had better cardio and in recent losses Lawler has given up multiple takedowns while offering zero ability to submit opponents off his back. He typically avoids looking for submissions while trying to get back up to his feet.
The strategy for Lawler is simply sprawl and brawl. He does defend takedowns at a 62% clip, but I have a feeling if Koscheck wants to take him down there’s nothing he can do about it.
Koscheck needs to strike just enough to set Lawler up for a takedown. Koscheck’s striking consists mainly of a huge looping right hand and that’s about it. He needs to be weary of Lawler sending a knee up the middle while shooting for a takedown as Lawler has shown he’s willing to take that chance in the past. Once he gets the fight to the ground he should simply work to keep Lawler there and inflict damage.
Josh Koscheck takes this fight via unanimous decision. Lawler has a puncher’s chance though.