The ProMMAnow.com (www.prommanow.com) staff weighs-in with their thoughts and predictions for the UFC 156 fight card headlined by Jose Aldo vs. Frankie Edgar. Will the champ retain his title? How will Edgar look at 145? Can Lil’ Nog foil the 185 title talk for Rashad Evans? Can Bigfoot stop the Reem? Can Demian Maia submit Jon Fitch? Can Ian McCall put his personal issues aside to focus on the task at hand? Can Tyron Woodley bounce back after his brutal loss to Nate Marquardt? So many questions… and they all get answered on Saturday.
Jose Aldo (21-1) vs. Frankie Edgar (15-3-1)
ODDS: Aldo -200 vs. Edgar +160
GARY THOMAS: Edgar at 45, coming off 2 losses and a chance at a title? That is a recipe for a good fight out of Frankie. Aldo has been dormant but lets not forget just how good he has been. We should also not forget how boring he can be too. I like both guys but I think with all the changes Edgar goes beast mode and takes the belt. Pick – Edgar by decision.
JAY CEE: Frankie Edgar makes the drop down to featherweight and it will be interesting to see if this plays to his advantage or not. He has always had excellent stand-up and take-downs, but he is dealing with a whole different animal in Jose Aldo. The Brazilian champ will be looking to make his fourth title defense and carries some dangerous power in his hands. He comes into this fight following a big KO victory over Chad Mendes, so he will be full of confidence. If Frankie can throw Aldo off with his speed and movement then he may create problems for Jose, but if the champ can get his hands on Edgar and cause some early damage then the scales tilt his way. Jose Aldo wins via Decision.
JAN GAETJENS: Jose Aldo is a devastating force on his feet, and, although Frankie Edgar is about as game as anyone when it comes to crowd-pleasing throw downs, Aldo is just too much for the former lightweight champ. The drop down in weight will prove to be the right call in the long run, but I don’t quite see the short term payoff to redeeming back to back losses to Ben Henderson by facing the featherweight version of Bendo right off the bat. Aldo by decision
BRIAN FURBY: I like Edgar. Aldo is an excellent fighter, for sure, but Edgar is scrappy and has a history of being able to take some massive shots. It’s going to be close, but I think Edgar will edge it out. The longer the fight goes on, the more it favors Edgar. Edgar by split decision.
JACK BRATCHER: Not sure what happens to Frankie Edgar after this fight but I think Aldo is too powerful and too well-rounded. He should still have a size advantage here too. Edgar could possibly out-point him with his boxing if he takes him into deep waters, but I don’t think it’s going to last long enough for that to happen. I predict Aldo stops Edgar via TKO.
[divider]
Rashad Evans (17-2-1) vs. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira (20-5)
ODDS: Evans -500 vs. Nogueira +400
GARY THOMAS: Rashad vs Lil Nog should be decent. Hard to think that Evans won’t be the favorite nor will he have much trouble with Nogueira. Both guys coming off long lay offs should make for an awkward start. Look for Rashad to go after it in the first and finish it in the second. Pick – Evans by KO Round 2.
JAY CEE: Nogueira makes his return to the octagon after just over a year out and has been handed quite an assignment upon his return. He has fantastic BJJ and striking, but will he have to contend with any octagon rust? Rashad has been out of action for approximately 9 months, but his last bout was against Jon Jones and he would have gained invaluable experience from that. I think Rashad wins this one via TKO. Rashad Evans wins via TKO.
JAN GAETJENS: This is why Bob Arum doesn’t like MMA. Prepare for a three round wrestling exhibition with Evans securely on top of the affair. Evans by decision
BRIAN FURBY: I saw Evans is a massive favorite in this fight, but I really can’t figure out why. Did Nog get an arm or a leg cut off that nobody but the oddsmakers know about yet? Evans has a suspect chin at best, and Nog is going to catch him. Nog by KO in Round 2.
JACK BRATCHER: Evans’ wrestling and boxing and speed will be too much for Lil Nog. Evans wins via TKO.
[divider]
Alistair Overeem (36-11) vs. Antonio “Bigfoot” Silva (17-4)
ODDS: Overeem -400 vs. Silva +300
GARY THOMAS: Overeem is back! Bad sign for the heavyweight division. A little tune up with Silva before he chases that title. Does anyone think Silva has a chance? Not this guy. Pick – Overeem by however he wants in the first.
JAY CEE: I honestly don’t have much to say about this fight. I think that Silva will plan to take Overeem down as that is where he would have the advantage. However, I think before he is able to do that Alistair will steam in with his striking and probably finish things in similar fashion to the Lesnar bout. Alistair Overeem wins via TKO.
JAN GAETJENS: Silva absolutely lay the lumber on Travis Browne in his last outing, and stylistically this is the kind of match up he thrives in. Unlike Cain Velasquez and Daniel Cormier, Overeem will keep the fight standing, and thus keep open a window for Silva to connect glove to chin. Here’s the problem, that proverbial “ off button” is essentially non-existent on The Reem. Ring rust or not, Overeem’s striking, timing, and takedown defense is unmatched. Overeem by (T)KO
BRIAN FURBY: Given Overeem’s history, it would be easy to make some jokes at his expense. But really guys, let’s not horse around. I mean, we don’t needs jokes to enhance the quality of our picks. We’re just making picks, not trying to pass a test. That being said, Overeem by TKO in Round 2.
JACK BRATCHER: Overeem is too big, too fast, too powerful for Bigfoot. I think he’s going to destroy him… quickly. I think he’s going to be like a savage tiger who’s starving for food. Overeem by knockout.
[divider]
Jon Fitch (24-4-1) vs. Demian Maia (17-4)
ODDS: Fitch -220 vs. Maia +180
GARY THOMAS: Jon Fitch got back on the winning track and Maia has been a beast at 170. I think this is a great fight for Fitch to be able to get back in the mentions of the top tier welterweights. He is hard to finish and I don’t see Maia knocking him out. Pick – Fitch by decision.
JAY CEE: Demian Maia has looked fantastic since dropping into the welterweight division and he looks more of a threat then ever. He is on a two-fight winning streak and will be coming into this fight with a lot of confidence. Jon Fitch picked up a big win over your prospect Erick Silva in his last fight and has the skills to grind out a decision win against some of the best. It will be interesting to see how Fitch’s style matches up against Maia’s high level BJJ. It should be fun. I am not gonna take Fitch for the decision, I think Maia will score a big sub! Demian Maia wins via Submission.
JAN GAETJENS: 170 is definitely the weight for Maia, but Fitch is a tall order to try and take to the ground and lock up a submission. Fitch by (T)KO
BRIAN FURBY: Fitch is often criticized for having a boring style. Hell, I’ve criticized him for being boring. But, what often looks boring is actually dominance. I think Fitch will smother Maia for three rounds. Fitch by Unanimous Decision
JACK BRATCHER: Fitch should be able to stifle Maia’s submission game with his wrestling and grind out a decision. Fitch by decision.
[divider]
Ian McCall (11-3-1) vs. Joseph Benavidez (16-3)
ODDS: McCall +220 vs. Benavidez -260
GARY THOMAS: Uncle Creepy has been vocal and it seems there may be some personal issues going on with him. Benavidez is not the guy to come into a fight not all there. I think they both will be aggressive but I like Benavidez to take this one with his striking. Pick – Benavidez by TKO Round 3.
JAY CEE: This matchup should be a cracker! Some high paced flyweight action from two of the best in the world. “Uncle Creepy” is still in search of his first UFC win and he will be hungry to bounce back from his loss against Demetrious Johnson. Benavidez will be looking to do the same and brings knockout power with a dangerous ground game. I gotta go with Benavidez on this one, although it should be another close bout. Benavidez wins via TKO.
JAN GAETJENS: In a division that is essentially Demetrious Johnson and everyone else, this fight goes a long way into shaping the flyweight picture. McCall is one of those fighters whose personality is more well known than his body of work in the cage, but don’t let that fool you because he is legitimately among the best 125 pounders in the world. He doesn’t have the same level of stifling top control that Benavidez can conjure up, but he’s got quick hands and should at the very least, be able to prevent Benavidez from going wet blanket on him on the ground. Don’t sleep on Uncle Creepy- advice which holds true for this fight as well as life in general really… McCall by decision
BRIAN FURBY: Should be an entertaining fight. Benavidez packs more power than most 25ers, but I think McCall’s speed will prevent him from being finished. Despite that, Benavidez will have a dominant performance. Benavidez by Unanimous Decision
JACK BRATCHER: McCall told us mentally this has been a very tough camp for himself. It seems he’s going through a separation or divorce and that has to be a factor going into this fight. Benavidez via decision.
[divider]
Jay Hieron (23-6) vs. Tyron Woodley (10-1)
ODDS: Hieron +110 vs. Woodley -140
GARY THOMAS: Tyron Woodley got his promotion and got it coming off a loss. Jay too is trying to bounce back. Neither guy is as exciting as they should be. This fight is a coin flip but I like Woodley to work a little harder and get a win. Pick – Woodley by decision.
JAY CEE: Both of these guys are coming in off a loss and will really want to bounce back with a win. Woodley has some really good wrestling and can grind his way to a decision. Hieron is a fantastic all-rounder and poses a major threat to any welterweight jumping into the cage with him. This is a great pairing of fighters and very tough to call, but i’m gonna go with Woodley for the decision. PICK: Tyron Woodley wins via Decision.
JAN GAETJENS: Stud wrestler vs. stud wrestler. Only one of the two is significantly younger and significantly more… studly? Woodley by decision
BRIAN FURBY: Woodley by Unanimous Decision
JACK BRATCHER: I like Woodley’s wrestling better and think he’ll grind out the decision.