The UFC on FOX 5 main card will begin the broadcast with a welterweight matchup between two “Ultimate Fighter” alums in Mike Swick and Matt Brown. Swick was on the inaugural show way back in 2005, and Brown was on season seven. This fight should certainly start the show off with a bang as both fighters really get after it in the cage. Let’s see how this one breaks down.
Matt Brown (15-11) is coming into this fight off a TKO win over Luis Ramos in June, which was his third consecutive win inside the octagon. Brown has won eight fights via TKO/KO and five fights via submission, but has been submitted in nine of his 11 losses. He’s very durable with size as a welterweight with an aggressive in your face style, and has decent power in his strikes. He seems to have really found himself in his past three fights by simply dictating the pace of the fights and imposing his will on his opponents. He’ll try to make it four in a row on Saturday night.
Mike Swick (15-4) is coming into this fight off his TKO win over DeMarques Johnson at the UFC on FOX 4 event. That was the first fight for Swick in two and a half years, and saw him overcome adversity in the first round to get the “Knockout of the Night” win over Johnson. Swick has won eight fights via TKO/KO and three fights via submission. He’s battled all types of injuries and a stomach issue over the past couple of years that have kept him out of action. He looked really rusty in his bout with Johnson, and it’ll be interesting to see if it was the layoff that was the biggest factor in his performance in that bout.
If you look at both fighters in their respective careers, you would have to say that Brown is on the upswing and Swick is simply trying to reassert himself in the game after overcoming lots of obstacles. Brown will have the edge in size and sheer power, and has the better chin of the two fighters. He’ll probably be the aggressor, but Swick is comfortable being the counter-striker as well so it’ll be interesting to see how that plays out. Also, Brown is the more accurate striker according to Fightmetric with both guys being nearly even in regards to wrestling ability.
I think the x-factor in this fight will be the aggressiveness of Brown which should serve him well for the most part. There are not many fighters that fight well moving backwards, and Swick isn’t one of those fighters. I think Brown will start slow to get his timing and distance down, but will gradually become more aggressive as the fight goes on. I don’t think Swick has the power to hurt him standing, and I think we’ll see Swick circling with his back against/near the cage with Brown stalking him which will not bode well for Swick. I don’t think Swick will be able to take Brown down unless he catches a kick and takes him down from there. I do think Brown will be able to take Swick down if he wants to because he’ll be the stronger of the two fighters, and Swick historically has been taken down by fighters with non-impressive takedown ability.
The one danger zone for Brown in this fight will be if the fight goes to the ground. As I mentioned, nine of Brown’s 11 losses are via submission with three of them being via guillotine choke. Swick has shown that he has a pretty sick guillotine choke over the years, so this will be something Brown needs to be on the lookout for in this fight.
I think injuries and time off have certainly impacted Swick’s career tremendously, and the skills he used to rely on are not advantages anymore against most opponents. Brown should be able to hurt him standing and finish him via TKO.