The UFC 149 co-main event will feature a middleweight bout between former Bellator middleweight champion Hector Lombard and UFC veteran Tim Boetsch. This will mark the UFC debut of Lombard and he’s a fighter than many hardcore fans have wanted to see in the UFC for a long time. A Lombard win could put him in a position to be the next person to challenge UFC middleweight kingpin Anderson Silva. Let’s see how this one breaks down.
Tim Boetsch (15-4) is coming off his improbably comeback KO win over Yushin Okami at UFC 144 in Japan earlier this year. Boetsch was clearly behind on the scorecards as Okami was having his way with him on the feet and on the ground, but Boetsch went for broke in the final round and took Okami out. Boetsch has seven wins via KO/TKO and three technical submissions to his credit. Boetsch has good power in strikes and is a powerful guy overall that also have a wrestling background. He’s pretty durable and is dangerous at all times during the fight. Fighters with good wrestling have given him problems in the past.
Hector Lombard (32-2-1, 1NC) comes into this fight riding a 25 fight winning streak(including one draw) and last competed at Bellator 58 last November. He comes into this fight with 17 wins via KO/TKO and five technical submission wins to his credit. Lombard was a member of the 2000 Cuban Olympic team in the sport of judo. He is explosive as they come with devastating power and has been able to apply his judo background at times during his career. He’s also well versed in submissions with a blackbelt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu. He has had cardio issues in the past as he is heavily muscled.
Our sponsor Topbet has Lombard as the betting favorite at (-390) and Boetsch as the underdog at (+320).
I have to agree with these odds. I’m not a proponent of MMA math, but Yushin Okami was giving Boetsch the business prior to getting hit with big punch which changed the fight in the final round. I think the biggest difference in this fight will be the sheer speed and explosiveness that Lombard brings to the table. Lombard is built like a fire hydrant but moves extremely quick for a guy that’s heavily muscled. Most of the time Lombard flurries with punches in bunches and swarms his opponents which has worked for him in the past.
Boetsch has a good chin and has only been stopped via TKO once in his career, and that was against Matt Hamill as a light heavyweight. If he can weather the storm in the early part of the fight his chances of winning go up dramatically. Boetsch does have a reach advantage in this fight and is the better wrestler, but Lombard’s judo will probably offset the wrestling.
I like Lombard to take Boetsch out early via TKO, but if Boetsch can make it to the third round I could smell a huge upset!