The UFC on FX 4 event will feature a welterweight fight between two guys that have been on a tear over the past few years. Brian Ebersole will take on TJ Waldburger in what should be a fight that moves the winner up the welterweight ladder. Let’s see how this fight breaks down.
Brian Ebersole (49-14-1, 1NC) comes into this fight off a split decision win over Claude Patrick at UFC 140. Ebersole has won his last 10 fights in a row and has finished six of those opponents. Ebersole has won 14 fights via TKO/KO and 20 fights via submission. Interestingly enough, he has lost via submission nine times and never been finished via TKO/KO. Ebersole is a fighter that has good size, is durable, and likes to have grueling fights and break his opponents down.
TJ Waldburger (15-6) is coming off a submission win over Jake Hecht last March. Waldburger has won his last two fights via submission and has 12 wins via submission to his credit with one finish via TKO/KO. It should be noted that five of his six losses have come via TKO/KO..
This should be an interesting fight with Ebersole being submission prone, and Waldburger being knockout prone! Ebersole obviously has a huge advantage in experience which could play a factor, and it should be noted that many of those submissiono losses came within the first 20 fights of Ebersole’s career. He will be giving up a two inch reach advantage to Waldburger as well, with both fighters having competent striking. However, this fight will come down to whoever can keep the fight on the feet and/or who has the better grappling pedigree.
Ebersole’s last three opponents have all been competent on the ground and he was able to avoid being submitted and/or controlled by those opponents. He has excellent takedown defense as he defends 85% of the takedowns against him according to Fightmetric. Waldburger is successful on 77% of his takedown attempts. If Waldburger needs to score takedowns if he wants to be successful in this fight as Ebersole is a bit more well rounded in his approach.
I basically see Ebersole defending the takedown