The UFC on FX 2 main event will feature a welterweight bout between top fighters and MMA veterans Thiago Alves and Martin Kampmann which is set to take place in Sydney, Australia. This should be an action packed main event as both fighters usually put on exciting performances and can end the fight anywhere. Also, this fight is important within the welterweight division as both are coming off wins and are looking to get back into title contention. In fact, Kampmann owns a close split decision win over UFC Interim welterweight champion Carlos Condit which took place in 2009. Let’s see how this one breaks down.
Martin Kampmann comes into this fight with an overall record of (18-5) with seven wins via TKO/KO and six wins via submission. Kampmann was last seen in action earning a unanimous decision win over Rick Story at UFC 139. Kampmann had lost back to back fights prior to that fight with both fights being controversial decisions from the judges. Kampmann is a very good striker, has a good chin, and is well versed in submissions on the ground. The knock on him is he gets off to slow starts at times and tends to cut/bleed fairly easily.
Thiago Alves comes into this fight with an overall record of (19-8) with 11 wins via TKO/KO and two wins via submission. Alves was last seen in action earning his first technical submission win over Papy Abedi at UFC 138. Alves has won two of his last three after losing back to back fights to Georges St. Pierre and Jon Fitch. Alves is a very good striker with great leg kicks, and is one of the larger welterweights in the division. The knock on him is that he doesn’t fight well when in close quarters as seen in his performance against Rick Story.
Alves is the favorite in this fight at (-135) and Kampmann as the underdog at (+105).
This is a pretty even fight to call and will really depend on who is more assertive in their game plans. Kampmann is comfortable with allowing his opponents to come forward and counter punching while Alves can be aggressive with his muay thai base. Both fighters have good chins with Kampmann being the better puncher and Alves being the better kicker. Kampmann will have a slight reach advantage in this matchup which could be a factor since Alves likes to fight from the outside most of the time. It should be noted that Kampmann has been swarmed with punches before and taken out via TKO three times in his career. Alves has been stopped once via TKO which happened to be when Jon Fitch landed a huge up kick from his back and stunned Alves with Fitch finishing him with punches. Alves has been submitted three times in MMA while Kampmann has six wins via submission.
I expect this fight to stay on the feet the entire time. Kampmann has been a little more aggressive of late with his offense, so I expect him to continue that trend while also looking to counter Alves when the opportunity arises. I think most of Kampmann’s offense will be off his jab as it’s pretty effective. Alves will look to land those devastating leg kicks of his while trying to avoid being countered by punches from Kampmann. Kampmann is the more accurate striking and also has slightly better defense according to Fightmetric.
This fight really could go either way and will probably go to the judges in my opinion. If the fight ends via TKO that would probably favor Alves since Kampmann’s chin has been found a few times. I really don’t see this fight ending via submission.
I’m going to go with the slight underdog here. I think Kampmann outpoints Alves in a close decision, but it all hinges on him being more assertive with his offense. If not, Alves will likely take it.