UFC 143 preview: Fabricio Werdum eyes triumphant UFC return against Roy Nelson

The UFC 143 co-main event a heavyweight bout between MMA veterans Roy Nelson and Fabricio Werdum that will take place on Saturday night in Las Vegas, Nevada. It’s an important fight as the heavyweight division is in dire need of contenders to emerge, or the UFC will be stuck with and steady diet of rematches and boring story lines in the heavyweight division. It’s a difficult fight to predict, but let’s take a stab at how this one will shake out.

Roy Nelson comes into this fight with a career record of (16-6) with nine wins via TKO/KO and five wins via submission. He was last seen in action defeating via TKO, and ending the MMA career of former PRIDE standout Mirko Cro Cop at UFC 137. Nelson is currently (3-2) inside the octagon with both losses coming against top contenders, but none of his wins have come against top fighters. Nelson is known for big power in his right hand while also being a jiu jitsu blackbelt on the ground. However, he prefers to stand and strike most of the time and can take loads of punishment because of his granite chin. The knock on Nelson has been his lack of stamina in fights which has been a factor in both of his losses in the UFC.

Fabricio Werdum comes into this fight with a career record of (14-5) with eight wins via submission and four wins via TKO/KO. He was last seen in action losing a unanimous decision to the current number one contender Alistair Overeem during the Strikeforce heavyweight Grand Prix last year. Werdum was riding a three fight winning streak going into that fight and put up a decent fight against one of the world’s most devastating heavyweights. Werdum comes from a grappling background as he’s a former submission grappling world champion, but he also has improved his striking ability over the years with a muay thai based attack. Werdum is notable for becoming the first fighter to legitimately defeat MMA legend Fedor Emelianenko as he submitted him in the first round via triangle choke in June 2010.

Werdum is the favorite at (-150) and Nelson as the underdog at (+120).

I agree with these odds as Werdum is the more complete fighter in my mind, but Nelson is certainly capable of winning this fight as well.

The main thing for Nelson in this fight is coming into the fight in shape. He has made a huge effort to lose some of the excess weight that he used to carry around, and actually appeared a lot smaller in his last match up against Mirko Cro Cop. Unfortunately, the loss in weight didn’t exactly translate into better cardio as a tired Nelson had to survive being rocked by the aging fighter before finally putting him away in the final round. Nelson needs look for opportunities to land that big right of his, but it should be noted that it’s not easy to finish Werdum as he has only been stopped once in his career via TKO. Nelson may need to look for opportunities to take Werdum down, and while Werdum has the edge on the ground I think Nelson is good enough to avoid getting submitted from the top position. Werdum likes to use kicks in his attacks, and that could present opportunities for takedowns if Nelson is able to capitalize in those situations.

Werdum is the better striker because he doesn’t solely rely on power, and he has more variety in his attacks in the form of punches, knees, and leg kicks. I think Werdum could win this fight on the feet rarely easily provided Nelson doesn’t connect with a big bomb. Werdum has a good chin as he has taken punches from some of MMA’s biggest hitters, and the lone TKO loss came in the form of a ‘Mortal Kombat’ uppercut from then unknown Junior dos Santos. Werdum should fight this fight from a distance as he’ll have about a five inch reach advantage over Nelson. I wouldn’t look to take Nelson down unless it was late in the fight and he was beginning to fade. At that point, Werdum could probably do some damage as his top game is very good as we’ve seen him mount fighters like Gabriel Gonzaga and Brandon Vera in the past.

I think Werdum can win the striking exchanges, and he should be able to avoid the big right hand from Nelson especially if Nelson begins to fade. I think Werdum takes the decision as Nelson is incredibly difficult to finish.