UFC on FOX 2 preview: Rashad Evans welcomes Phil Davis to the big leagues

The UFC on FOX 2 main event will feature a light heavyweight bout between former UFC light heavyweight champion Rashad Evans as he is set to take on rising contender Phil Davis. The event will take place in Chicago where Evans currently resides. UFC President Dana White has stated that Evans will receive a title shot against current champion Jon Jones should he defeat Davis and come away with no injuries. Let’s see how this fight breaks down.

Phil Davis comes into this fight with a career record of (9-0) with three wins via submission and two wins via TKO/KO. Davis was last seen in action defeating Antonio Rogerio Nogueira via unanimous decision back in March 2011. Davis was scheduled to fight Evans in the summer of last year, but had to pull out of the bout with a knee injury. That same injury has kept Davis out of action until now. Davis has a decorated wrestling background as a four time All-American at Penn State University, and became a national champion in 2008. Davis is very athletic with very good wrestling for MMA, and is well versed in submissions. The knock on Davis is that he’s still very green as a fighter and his striking game isn’t up to par with the rest of his skills at the moment.

Rashad Evans comes into this fight with a career record of (16-1-1) with six wins via TKO/KO and one submission to his credit. Evans was last seen in action dismantling  Tito Ortiz via TKO at UFC 133 last year after coming off a year of setbacks due to injuries and bad luck. Evans also has a wrestling background, winning the junior college national championship and then competing at Michigan State University. He’s one of only three wrestlers to defeat Greg Jones. Evans is probably one of the best at transitioning from striking to wrestling in all of MMA. He’s quick with KO power in his punches and kicks while also being versed in submissions. The knock on Evans is that he’s relatively small compared to most guys in the division, and his cardio has come into question in a few fights.

Evans is the favorite at (-175) and Davis is the underdog at (+145).

If Davis was not coming off such a long layoff and injury I certainly would place a small wager on him at these odds. That’s not to say he can’t perform well coming off the long layoff. We saw Evans do it against Tito Ortiz, but Ortiz isn’t a top level fighter anymore not to mention he took that fight in two weeks notice as well.

This is a very interesting fight because of the attributes both fighters bring to the table. I have to think Davis wants to eventually take Evans down and use his size to control him on the ground. Evans will look to strike but probably mix in some takedown attempts as well, or put Davis against the cage and try to do damage from there.

Davis has shown that he’s more comfortable with his kicks than he is in letting his punches go. He threw a number of high kicks against Nogueira, but he won’t be able to do much of that against Evans because that would present takedown opportunities. He’s not very fluid with his punches so he probably won’t be able to rely on them to set up his takedowns. He’ll probably have to rely on Evans coming forward, ducking under punches while shooting for the takedown from there. If he’s able to get Evans to the ground he has excellent control and an underrated ground game for such a young fighter. Be sure to keep an eye on that if he gets Evans to the ground, especially if Evans begins to gas late in the fight as this is a five round fight.

Evans will need to set up everything off of his striking, and he’ll need to keep the pressure on Davis. Thus far, Davis does not seem to respond well to someone throwing leather at him. Nogueira did this and Davis seemed really tentative to do much during the first half of that fight. Evans will have to rely on his speed and agility to close the distance as Davis will have a significant reach advantage. Doing all of the above will have Evans fighting at a very high pace, so he’ll need to be able to pace himself.

Ultimately, I’m going to go with Evans in this fight via unanimous decision. Davis has the tools to win, but the long layoff coupled with the step up in competition will be too much too soon in my opinion. I hope it’s a good fight!