Debating the success of UFC on Fox 1

John Buhl and I have been doing a sort-of weekly podcast together for some time. In doing so, we have exchanged thousands of emails. It often seems like our emails are more clever, thoughtful and poignant than our actual recordings. So, I have decided to publish one of our better debates. Plus, the all stars over at Grantland.com do this too, so there.

Mann

This weekend the UFC will make their live debut on network television with the creatively titled “UFC on Fox 1” event. The moderate success that Elite XC and then Strikeforce enjoyed on CBS has MMA fans buzzing. If those shows could garner ratings, then the big and bad UFC will blow the roof off the place. However, for a variety of reasons, I maintain that the ratings for this event will not reach the Kimbo plateau.

Hardcore fans do not come close to understanding the role that Spike TV plays in the popularity of the UFC. The sport is about as mainstream as it is going to get, and people STILL come up to me and ask if I saw the fight between Diego Sanchez and Nick Diaz “the other night on Spike.”

The Viacom-owned channel will go head-to-head with the UFC event with a broadcast of their own featuring both Cain Velasquez and Junior Dos Santos. I doubt the average UFC fan will even realize he/she is not watching the highly anticipated title fight. It might be easy to blame this on the fact that my faith in humanity is at an all time low, but Spike TV beat UFC on Versus 4 with reruns of the “always exciting” Nate Marquardt.

The UFC Primetime show brought in two million viewers. That is a pretty solid number until you realize that the preceding NFL game average 17 million viewers. I struggle to imagine the sound of 15 million sports fans changing the channel.

Buhl

Sweet. A debate about MMA television ratings and mindless predictions about what they mean. Now I feel like we’ve really arrived in the elite blogger nation.

I guess I’d start off my rant by saying I don’t give a [expletive] about MMA being on network TV. I never have. Network channels are for old people that don’t realize their remote controls can guide them past the number “9” and well into the wild tundra of cable/satellite programming. Some people made a big stink about the NFL’s Monday Night Football broadcast moving away from a network and onto ESPN. As if ESPN is a small franchise unbeknownst to the masses. EliteXC’s debut on CBS is cited as the gold standard for MMA television ratings, but the UFC’s tape-delayed showing of UFC 75 with Quinton “Rampage” Jackson vs. Dan Henderson in the main event on Spike TV drew roughly the same number of viewers. Wait, if network television is so awesome and special, how did so many people tune into a much smaller, lesser known cable network? It’s almost like they realize other channels exist!

Regarding your Spike point, it’s true that they played a key role in marketing MMA and became a regular destination for those of us that love watching half-naked men roll around on the ground. Versus never had that name recognition or the advertising budget to get people to flip over. And while I share your lack of faith in humanity (Hello, Penn State!), there’s nothing that Spike and their weak counter-programming attack can do to offset the promotional force of Fox firing off commercials and plugs for the Velasquez–Dos Santos fight during NFL broadcasts. Even people that still think Ken Shamrock is the world’s most dangerous man will figure that out.

Your point about the weak ratings for the UFC Primetime show is also pretty insignificant. I don’t have to struggle at all to imagine the sound of 15 million sports fans changing the channel, because it’s happened every NFL Sunday since I’ve been alive.

As I recall, I bet you that the UFC on Fox show would garner at least 10-times as many viewers as the Spike broadcast of Velasquez-Dos Santos highlights. In fairness, I made that prediction after you predicted that the Spike show would outdraw the Fox event. I’m all for bets, but I also feel bad taking money from legally insane individuals, so even though a 10-1 pummeling might not unfold, I’m standing by my gut instinct.

The bigger question is whether this show will overtake the Kimbo/CBS number. I think it will, but I’m not completely certain. MMA has pretty much arrived and already popped its network television cherry, so the UFC being on Fox hasn’t generated anywhere near the media attention. It isn’t that novel anymore. Plus, for all of EliteXC’s screw ups, their promotion of Gina Carano and Kimbo Slice was impressive. It ended up being their downfall thanks to Kimbo’s lack of skill, but whatever.

I don’t think the channel matters, though Fox’s promotion in front of huge NFL audiences will pay off. If I were the UFC, I’d be worried about moving away from the traditional model that helped build its empire — bringing in viewers with impressive cards featuring multiple compelling fights and instead putting all of your eggs in one fight basket. Newbies love heavyweights and it’s a great fight on paper, but it doesn’t feel like a UFC with only one fight to watch. If I want to watch something where the entire event hinges on one fight sucking or not sucking, I’d watch boxing.

Mann

In today’s anti-intellectual society, only you and those hoping to become “Editor Emeritus” of an AstroTurf MMA blog write that way.

Even though we are supposed to be debating, you made a few points for me. You mentioned that the UFC is only going to show only the one fight during the hour-long broadcast. That has to be worrisome for people expecting a big rating. A large part of the UFC’s success is their consistency. A lot of their shows are structured basically the same way. When they go out of their comfort zone, things can get messy. If you don’t believe me, go back and try to watch the first “Ultimate Fight Night” show. I bet you won’t make it 15 minutes before you tapout to the Burger King chicken fries commercials featuring “Coq Roq.”

Let’s assume the fight goes the entire 25 minutes, which seems unlikely, there will still be time left over. They have said that they will fill the extra time with interviews, MMA 101 segments or as I like to call it “the obnoxious stuff that Showtime and HDNet plaster on the screen.” On Spike TV, there will be actual fights…

Also, I think your mention of ESPN’s Monday Night Football is an interesting one. The four letters are able to generate stellar ratings with the same products that make other networks struggle. Their secret is their ability to bombard viewers with preview style shows that keep their selected product fresh in the public mind. This is exactly the type of promotion that the UFC lost when they left Spike. Fox is a higher profile network, but they have not yet shown the type of symbiotic relationship with the UFC that made the Spike-UFC partnership so fruitful.

I will never stop pounding the drum that most MMA fans are not sports fans. Obviously football is king in this country, so it would be stupid to expect the UFC to come close to17 million viewers for a countdown show. However, I think the divergent audience says a lot about the lack of potential MMA fans amidst the football-viewing/Dorito-eating population. Any story about Shaq or Ochocinco saying they want to fight in the UFC is still bigger than any real MMA news.

Let me ask you this: what, if anything, will it mean if the UFC does not hit the Kimbo/CBS number?

Buhl

Latin titles are for professors and douches, so please refrain from lobbing such insults at me. Also don’t remind me about the Burger King commercial fests we’ve been subjected to; if they really only show one fight, it’ll be unbearable for those without a DVR device.

Many MMA fans might not be sports fans — though I think that is a stretch; besides, MMA is a sport unless you live in New York state — but the bigger question is how much more can this sport really grow. I think the UFC can grow as it expands its worldwide reach and brings in more corporate business partnerships and advertisers. However, I don’t know that the ratings and pay-per-view buy numbers will get any higher in the foreseeable future.

If the UFC on Fox show doesn’t breach the Kimbo/CBS barrier, the blogosphere will explode with speculation and Dana White will flip out on Twitter responding to the Fedor trolls looking for revenge. To be fair, as long as it gets in the 4 million to 5 million range, things will be fine and the relationship with Fox won’t change any. I’m betting Fox got into this with a much more focused, long-term outlook, whereas CBS was wooed into a deal with a product they might not have been head-over-heels in love with, but jumped in bed with Shaw & Son given the favorability of the contract. The Manny Pacquiao vs. Juan Manuel Marquez fight is on the same night and college football could suck away some interest as well. Fox certainly isn’t all-in and as devoted as Spike because, quite frankly, they don’t have to go that extra mile. However, they’ve shown plenty of willingness to advertise, cross-promote, and associate their network with the UFC brand.

I guess I’m really coming back to the point that this is a nice little milestone if you’re into the business side of things, but practically speaking, it doesn’t mean that much that the UFC is on Fox. It won’t effect the opinion of the casual fans I know. Maybe you disagree…

Mann

I just did the most narcissistic thing ever…

Buhl

I know, I just read it