UFC 137 preview: Nick Diaz looks to impress against BJ Penn in UFC return

The UFC 137 main event between Nick Diaz and BJ Penn isn’t what we expected when we first heard of fights being announced for this event. However, considering the circumstances of injuries and guys missing press conferences, this is probably the best main event we could ask for. Nick Diaz will eyeing a title shot(the title shot he lost for missing press conferences) with a win over Penn, and Penn will be looking for potentially a third fight with Georges St. Pierre if he’s victorious. It should be a great fight so let’s see how this one shakes out.

Nick Diaz comes into this fight with a career record of (25-7, 1 NC) with 13 wins via TKO/KO and 8 wins via submission. Diaz was last seen defending his Strikeforce welterweight title by blasting through Paul Daley in the first round back in April. Diaz has won 10 fights in a row and hasn’t lost since 2007. He’s a very good boxer with length, a great chin, excellent cardio, and is also very good on the ground. The one flaw that has cost Diaz over the years is his takedown defense.

BJ Penn comes into this fight with a career record of (16-7) with 7 wins via TKO/KO and 6 wins via submission. Penn was last seen in action back in February fighting to a majority draw against Jon Fitch. Penn is (1-0-1) since returning to the welterweight division after dominating the lightweight division as champion before losing back to back fights against the current champion Frankie Edgar. The one flaw that has cost Diaz over the years is his cardio.

Bet on Fighting has Penn as the slight betting favorite at (-135) and Diaz as the underdog at (+105).

I agree with those odds. Many people think this fight will come down to the boxing of both fighters but I don’t think that will be the case. I think the two main things to look for in this fight is the cardio and wrestling of Penn. If Penn fights smart and uses his wrestling there is no reason why he can’t win this fight. There’s no reason to stand with Diaz when his takedown defense is suspect and Penn will be giving up quite a bit of reach standing as well. Also, Penn would allow Diaz to dictate the pace of the fight as Diaz would constantly apply pressure if they remain standing and that could take it’s toll on the smaller Penn.

We saw Penn use his underrated wrestling ability to surprise Jon Fitch in his last bout and clearly Nick Diaz’s wrestling isn’t on par with Jon Fitch. I think Diaz could anticipate that Penn will try to take him down which could negate a slight advantage that Diaz will have on the feet with his length and boxing. Penn should close the distance and put Diaz against the cage while dropping to a single leg takedown that usually works against Diaz. While Diaz is very good on the ground I doubt that Penn will be in any real danger of being submitted while he is in top position.

Diaz should simply keep this fight standing an fight an apply constant pressure against Penn which will zap his cardio. A tired Penn isn’t dangerous and seems to falter under that pressure, just watch the second fights with GSP and Matt Hughes. Diaz doesn’t have the power to knock Penn out, but those punches in bunches will certainly take their toll although we probably wouldn’t visually see it since Penn has leather for skin on his face! He rarely gets cut or swells really bad.

I think Penn will be able to take Diaz down and work from there. Diaz is active off his back though and will make Penn work. If Penn is in shape he should be able to win this fight. If not, I expect Diaz to batter him in the later stages of this fight due to sheer volume of strikes, but I don’t think he finishes Penn.

I’m going with Penn via decision. However, this is a must win fight for Nick Diaz and stay tuned for an upcoming post in which I explain to you why that is the case!