The ProMMAnow.com (www.prommanow.com) staff weighs in with their thoughts and predictions on the UFC 137 main card, including BJ Penn vs. Nick Diaz in the main event, the co-headliner between Cheick Kongo vs. Matt Mitrione, a heavyweight battle between Mirko Cro Cop and Roy Nelson, a bantamweight scrap between Scott Jorgensen and Jeff Curran and last but not least, a featherweight match between Hatsu Hioki and George Roop.

Nick Diaz (25-7, 1NC) vs. BJ Penn (16-7-2)

Odds: Diaz +105, Penn -125

RICHARD MANN: If this was a 25-minute fight, it would be much easier to predict. I like to say that Diaz could beat just about anyone in an unlimited rounds fight. Penn should be able to wrestle with Diaz. If he can get takedowns, he can easily take two of the three rounds and score a decision. If he chooses to stand up, Diaz will be the more active striker and probably sway some of the judges. Is it a great idea to bet on Penn sticking to a game plan? Maybe not… Diaz by decision

KELVIN HUNT: The difference in this fight will be the wrestling of Penn and the cardio of Diaz. If Penn is able to take Diaz down and work from top position he should be successful in winning this bout. If Diaz can stop a few takedowns and keep it standing I think he has the advantage on the feet simply due to the sheer number of strikes that he throws could overwhelm Penn and zap his cardio. Diaz is notorious for having poor takedown defense and that hasn’t changed, he just hasn’t been fighting anyone with good wrestling. Penn’s wrestling is underrated as we saw in the Fitch fight. I’m going with Penn via decision.

BRIAN FURBY: Penn

JOSH CROSS: This fight is going to be a huge test for Diaz. While definitely an exciting fighter in the cage, Diaz is known for getting wild with his punches at times, and it will be interesting to see how Penn is able to react. Penn will also prove to be a very real challenge and threat to Diaz if and when the fight goes to the ground.  How Diaz reacts and adjusts will be key in this fight. Until seeing how Diaz reacts it’s hard for me to pick him to win against Penn. It’s definitely not impossible for Diaz to win, but I think he has a harder path to victory than Penn does. Pick: Penn via Decision.

DENNY HODGE: What can you say about this fight? It was amazing how much excitement was generated for this bout without either guy saying so much as a single negative thing about each other. The respect shown for each other by each fighter was pretty unique for a UFC main event– until the weigh-ins that is. Exactly which B.J. Penn steps into the cage is the wildcard in this fight. Diaz is always the same, force-feeding his foes a steady stream of nonstop punches, while showing an amazing ability to recover when he gets rocked in exchanges. Will B.J. go for the take down and work his ground game in the dangerous guard of Diaz, or will he stand and bang? I think he will come out fast and go for it on the feet against Diaz. Diaz will oblige, and fans will be treated to an instant classic. Eventually I think B.J. will go for the take down, but will not be able to do enough there to win the fight. Diaz won’t get tired but B.J. will, and that will be the difference. Diaz by decision.

JACK BRATCHER: I love this fight so much and can’t wait to see it. Diaz all day. He’s too big and he knows how to use that reach. Freddie Roach used to say Penn was the best boxer in MMA. We’re about to find out once and for all. Diaz wanted a boxing match, now he’s probably going to get his wish. Diaz’s accumulative punch attack and pace will take it’s toll on Penn. I think he will either break Penn with strikes and submit him or eventually just TKO him. Either way, Diaz will finish Penn. The weigh-ins were awesome!

Matt Mitrione (5-0) vs. Check Kongo (17-6-2)

 Odds: Mitrione -120, Kongo +120

RICHARD MANN: Mitrione is proof that heavyweights in MMA still have a very long way to go. He seems to be the new it guy in the division. He is only 5-0 and his biggest wins are Christian Morecraft and two guys brought in to lose to other guys. Despite being touted as a Savate fighter, Kongo does his best work in the clinch. It will be a good test for Mitrione. If he passes, maybe he will be able to move into the upper ranks of the division. However, you can get Kongo as an underdog, and that is where your money should go. Kongo by decision.

KELVIN HUNT: I think Mitrione’s power and Kongo’s suspect chin will be the difference in this one. If Mitrione keeps it standing he’ll knock Kongo out. If Kongo can get Mitrione to the ground and unleash some ground and pound that he’s shown in the past, he can win as well. I’m going with Mitrione via TKO.

BRIAN FURBY: Mitrione

JOSH CROSS: I think Mitrione’s speed and quickness on his feet could be a major factor in this fight. Mitrione has shown how powerful he can be while Kongo’s chin has shown that it isn’t as iron clad as some used to think it was. I think Mitrione will be able to use his power in conjunction with his speed to outmaneuver Kongo and finish the fight. Pick: Mitrione via TKO.

DENNY HODGE: Mitrione has came a long way since his appearance on TUF, and he will be looking to truly establish himself in the UFC’s Heavyweight division against Kongo. Mitrione has shown marked improvement each time he’s stepped into the cage, and I expect him to continue his streak in this one. Kongo was rocked by Barry and showed a lot of resiliency coming back to win that fight, but Mitrione won’t be as careless as Barry was if he gets a chance to finish. I expect Kongo to go for some take downs in this fight, and it will be interesting to see if Mitrione has shored up his take down defense in this fight. Kongo has proven that he can get guys to the mat, and he can drop some bombs from there if he chooses to do so. I’m taking Mitrione to catch Kongo and put him away by TKO.
JACK BRATCHER: Mitrione’s power and athleticism will be too much for the Frenchman. Mitrione is a serious threat to the heavyweight division. Although still young in his career, he’s learning fast. He has the will and he knows the way. He knows what it is to be a professional athlete and he’s going to finish Cheick Kongo via knockout.

Mirko Cro Cop (27-9-2, 1NC) vs. Roy Nelson (15-6)

Odds: Nelson -280, Cro Cop +240

RICHARD MANN: In some ways it seems entirely possible that “Cro Cop” could stay on the outside and kick Nelson in the guy over and over. However, it seems like everyone, with maybe the exception of Eddie Sanchez, can push Filipovic into the cage. Nelson should be able to hold better position on the feet and do enough for the victory. Nelson by decision.

KELVIN HUNT: That KO button on Mirko’s chin gets bigger and bigger each fight it seems. Nelson has big power in his right hand. Nelson has an iron chin and with Mirko being tentative on the feet, Nelson should land a bomb sooner or later and put him away. Nelson via KO.

BRIAN FURBY: Nelson

JOSH CROSS: In Cro Cop’s last two fights I, like many, just feel like his heart isn’t in the fight anymore. I think this could very well be his last appearance in the octagon. I think this bout will go the distance though. Cro Cop was knocked out in the third round in his last two fights and I think that Nelson will be too tired by that time to finish the fight. Pick: Nelson via Decision.

DENNY HODGE: I don’t even like to think about what Cro Cop used to be. It’s just too disappointing. UFC fans have been waiting to see a flash of the old Cro Cop, but it may just be too late in his career to see any of that materialize. Nelson is a very skilled fighter who is much more athletic than casual fans think, and he possesses power in both hands, along with a very dangerous ground game. Cro Cop needs to go for broke and not hesitate to pull the trigger like he has done of late. Nelson will get his take downs when he wants them, and he will do damage when he’s on top. Nelson by decision.

JACK BRATCHER: I love this fight too. Nelson will finish Cro Cop either by knockout or submission. He’s going to attack him in the clinch and with strikes and hurt the Croatian. Nelson has one of the best chins in the game and Cro Cop doesn’t. This will likely be the final bout of Cro Cop’s long and illustrious career. He’s a legend and loved all over the world but his time has come.

Jeff Curran (33-13-1) vs. Scott Jorgensen (12-4)

RICHARD MANN: Curran is game enough to hang with anyone. He technical skills on the ground and on the feet are actually quite advance. His problem is that he is not able to apply these skills in a way that allows him to win rounds. Jorgensen will be more active on the feet. If it goes to the ground, Jorgensen will be on top and more effective. Jorgensen by decision.

KELVIN HUNT: Curran is slick with his BJJ, but Jorgensen’s wrestling and speed will be the difference in this fight. I think Jorgensen sets the pace early and will have a good gameplan of striking and takedowns to earn a decision. Jorgensen via decision.

BRIAN FURBY: Jorgensen

JOSH CROSS: It speaks volumes for Curran’s determination and skill for him to have finally made his way back to the UFC after a more than seven-year absence from the organization. But just like his journey back, this is going to be a difficult fight for Curran. I think Jorgensen’s speed will give him an advantage on the feet and on the ground as well. No matter where this fight goes, I think Jorgensen will be in control. So while it would be nice for Curran’s comeback tale to end with a victory, I just don’t see it happening. Pick: Jorgensen via Decision.

DENNY HODGE: Jeff Curran returns to the UFC to fight in the bantamweight division, which will favor him much more than when he had to fight much bigger opponents at 155 pounds in his previous stint with the UFC. Jorgensen is a tough opponent, and his wrestling versus the crafty jiu jitsu of Curran is going to be a true chess match. If the take downs come in droves, and the fight stays on the mat, this fight could be a letdown as far as excitement goes. Look for that exact thing to happen, with Jorgensen grinding out a razor thin decision.

JACK BRATCHER: Curran’s an awesome dude probably but I don’t feel he is going to be able to handle Jorgensen. Jorgensen’s wrestling should make the difference and will probably win a fairly dominant decision.

Hatsu Hioki (24-4-2) vs. George Roop (12-7)

Odds: Hioki -320, Roop +260

RICHARD MANN: I am sure it will be fashionable to pick against Hioki. I expected a lot of “Japanese fighters never do well in the UFC” as if the land of your birth determines your skill as a fighter. If Hioki gets on top of Roop, this fight is over. Hioki has one of the best offensive grappling games in MMA. He routinely knifes through the guards of quality ground fighters. Of course, Hioki has also been known to abandon a game plan and swing on the feet. That will be Roop’s only chance in this contest. Hioki by submission.

KELVIN HUNT: Japanese fighters hardly fair well in the UFC, but I think Hioki’s style transfers over well. I think he’ll be able to take Roop down at some point and take advantage of his lack of submission defense at times. Hioki via submission.

BRIAN FURBY: Roop

JOSH CROSS: Going into this fight, Hioki is being judged fairly or unfairly based on past Japanese fighters who have struggled once they stepped into the octagon. I don’t see Hioki suffering a similar fate like so many of his predecessors have. I think Hioki will be able to take down Roop and control the ground game. Hioki has had much success on the ground, and I think it will prove to be an issue for Roop. Pick: Hioki via Submission.

DENNY HODGE: Hioki is another Japanese fighter that will be looking to impress in the confines of the UFC’s Octagon. The track record for Japanese fighters has been spotty, but Hioki has a chance to make a big statement in this one. Roop is a tough opponent, and his improved stand up and reach advantage will serve him well if he can keep Hioki from getting inside and clinching. Hioki will eventually get the fight on the floor and work on his submission game, sprinkled in with some ground-and-pound. Roop will hang in there but will eventually get caught in a submission late in the fight. Hioki by submission.

JACK BRATCHER: I’m often scared to pick the Japanese fighters, especially in their debut, because of their track record in the Octagon, but I’m going with Hioki via decision.

2 thoughts on “ProMMAnow.com UFC 137 staff picks; Penn slight favorite over Diaz”

Leave a Reply