It’s time to get geared up for the Strikeforce Heavyweight Grand Prix: Barnett vs. Kharitonov event will take place this weekend in Cincinnati, Ohio. It should be an interesting card to say this least and a few of these fights have some meaning in the grand scheme of things with Strikeforce probably closing shop in the coming months. Let’s take a look at the light heavyweight bout between former Strikeforce light heavyweight champion King Mo Lawal as he takes on grappling ace Roger Gracie.
Roger Gracie comes into this fight with an overall record of (4-0) with all four wins coming via submission. He was last seen in action submitting MMA veteran Trevor Prangley in just under fight minutes back in January of this year. Gracie is a still relatively new to MMA, but is well known throughout the grappling world as one of if not the best Brazilian jiu-jitsu practioner in the world. He has multiple ADCC submission grappling titles to his credit. He brings good size standing near 6’4″ and of course world class submission skills.
King Mo Lawal comes into this fight with an overall record of (7-1) with 5 wins via TKO/KO. Lawal was last seen in action losing his Strikeforce light heavyweight title against Rafael Cavalcante in August of last year. Lawal is also relatively new to MMA making his debut right at 3 years ago, but has loads of wrestling experience. Lawal brings an improving striking game, power, and that formidable wrestling pedigree into this fight.
Bet on Fighting has Lawal as the betting favorite at (-140) with Gracie as the underdog at (+110).
I’d have Lawal as a slightly bigger favorite than that with Gracie being so one dimensional at this stage in his career. Lawal is coming off a very long layoff having to recovery from knee surgery during that time, but he also used the time to train at American Kickboxing Academy. The home of the likes of UFC heavyweight champion Cain Velasquez, Daniel Cormier, Josh Koscheck, and Jon Fitch. The one thing all of those guys have in common is they all come from wrestling backgrounds. It’s Velasquez and Cormier that have shown significant improvements in their striking skills and I’m sure that was one of the goals of Lawal while there. He had improved his striking prior to the loss to Cavalcante, showing the ability to go to the body well and also throw punches in bunches off failed takedown attempts.
Gracie is coming off an injury as well having to pull out of the original fight date back in July. It’s no secret that Gracie wants to get this fight to the ground. He has shown adequate striking skills at best, but it’s a limited sample size being that all of his fights have ended relatively quickly.
I know Lawal is stated that he’s not afraid of going to the ground with Gracie in interviews leading up to this fight. However, Lawal is actually a very smart fighter if you have ever heard him breakdown fights. If he does go to the ground with Gracie, one sure way to lose is to stay in Roger’s guard which is something that he tends to do. In his championship fight with Gegard Mousasi he got 11 eleven takedowns but only passed guard three times. That’s something he can’t afford to do if he goes to the ground with Gracie and another question would be could he consistently pass Gracie’s guard? On the flipside, Gracie hasn’t faced anyone with the wrestling base that Lawal has in MMA, but I simply wouldn’t chance getting swept if I were Lawal. He also needs to be aware of Gracie potentially pulling guard if Lawal decides to keep the fight standing.
Lawal knows the easiest path to victory is to keep the fight standing and use his improving striking skills to do damage while maybe going for a takedown late in each round to avoid giving Gracie time to setup submissions on the ground. If he fights smart, I see Lawal winning this fight pretty easily via decision as he’ll be able to dictate where the fight takes place and has better striking skills.
Rather lazy review of Roger’s style, falling back in the cliche that BJJ fighters will always pull guard. In reality Roger has only done so once in his first ever MMA fight against Waterman, and only because the situation arose, and he used the guard for what it was.
Roger will absolutely NOT pull guard. He’d be mad to, especially when his sweeps and submissions from his back in open, spider, and x-guard are so good.
I think Roger will win this so long as Lawal can’t connect in the first round. If Roger lasts out the first, I reckon he’ll get Mo down, and get the sub.
Lazy? Ehh…chances of Roger taking Lawal down without pulling guard are pretty miniscule…he hasn’t pulled guard because he’s never faced a wrestler like Lawal.
Good review Kel.
This similarities in both fighters are pretty, well, similar.
Both are grapplers first. Gracie is naturally the bigger guy (Im still waiting for MO to go beastmode on the 185 lb division), and Mo is naturally the faster guy. MO’s probably got more power standing, but Roger’s grappling (and especially grip) strength is apparent in every competition he enters.
After you look at those, along with all other factors, Mo should definitely be the favorite. However, this is a fight I wouldn’t touch when it comes to betting. Mo has been tearing shit up at AKA, while Gracie has had GSP at his camp multiple times to work on everything. I could see it ending in a TKO for Mo, or a sub for Gracie.
It kind of feels like this fight is coming to early for Gracie, but in MMA the prospects get moved fast. Especially in SF.
MO tore it up. My boy is packing some power. And AKA just established themselves as arguably the best camp in MMA at this particular moment in time. They got killers there.
Yea…I mean..I’m still trying to figure out why the oddsmakers barely had Mo as a favorite…