“UFC 131: Dos Santos vs. Carwin” takes place Saturday, June 11, at Rogers Arena in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada. The event is headlined with a heavyweight top contender bout between Junior dos Santos (12-1) vs. Shane Carwin (12-1).
Also, Kenny Florian (15-5) makes his featherweight debut against the very tough Diego Nunes (16-1). Heavyweights Jon Olav Einemo (7-1) and Dave Herman (20-2) square off at heavyweight in their UFC debuts. Mark Munoz (10-2) takes on Demian Maia (14-2) at middleweight and Donald Cerrone (14-3, 1 NC) takes on Vagner Rocha (6-1) at lightweight to round out the main card.
The ProMMAnow.com (www.prommanow.com) staff weighs-in with their thoughts and predictions on each of the main card bouts below. Let us know what you think of the picks, who you agree with, and who is off their rocker.
Junior dos Santos -173 vs. Shane Carwin +143
RICHARD MANN: If Carwin decides to use his wrestling, he should have very little trouble taking home a win here. People assume Dos Santos has solid wrestling and grappling games, but they have never seen him on his back. Carwin should have very little trouble pushing the smaller fighter into the cage and dragging him to the ground. Problems might arise if Carwin decides to test the waters standing. Dos Santos has the ability to land hard shots and get an opponent out of the cage. However, if Carwin comes in with the right gameplan, he will be back in the UFC heavyweight title picture. Carwin by TKO.
BRIAN FURBY: Some news has been made over the fact that Carwin has dropped some weight before this fight to prevent from gassing out like he did against Lesnar. While I think Carwin will look better in this fight, Dos Santos’s speed is going to be the deciding factor and I think he’ll be able to overwhelm Carwin like Velasquez did to Lesnar. Dos Santos by TKO in Round 1.
KELVIN HUNT: I think this fight will not get outta the first round as both guys pack huge power. I expect JDS to have superior footwork and handspeed and should have the advantage standing. Carwin could land a bomb and knock him out, but I don’t see it happening. I think Carwin may try to surprise JDS with a few takedowns attempts since he hasn’t really shown his wrestling skills in the cage yet..and this fight right here is his whole career possibly as he’s an older dude coming off surgery. I think JDS keeps it standing and knocks Carwin out.
JOSH CROSS: For me, there are a bunch of unknowns in this fight that make it both exciting and I think highly unpredictable. It has been nearly a year since Carwin’s last fight and one has to wonder if ring rust will be an issue. For Dos Santos, will he be able to keep Carwin, who has the size advantage, from taking him to the ground, and how will each one be able to handle the other’s punches? None of that could even matter if these two guys start swinging as soon as the fight starts resulting in a quick knockout. I think this fight could go either way, but just looking at their history, I like Dos Santos a little bit more, but Carwin is a beast and this fight could go either way. One thing is for sure it should definitely be exciting. Pick: Dos Santos via TKO.
JACK BRATCHER: It sounds as though Carwin has addressed the issues that plagued him in his fight against Brock Lesnar (see our interview with Trevor Wittman, Carwin’s coach). I still haven’t seen Dos Santos do anything but box. I’m sure he can, but we just haven’t seen it much. I can’t even remember seeing him throw a kick. I see Carwin eventually putting this fight on the ground and pounding out Dos Santos. Dos Santos has heavy hands — but not like Shane Carwin. If Carwin touches you, you go to sleep. Unless your name is Brock Lesnar and you use some type of back-pedaling game plan that will allow you to retreat like a horde of zombies is chasing you down to eat your flesh. Carwin via TKO.
Kenny Florian -300 vs. Diego Nunes +240
RICHARD MANN: Before Florian ran into Gray Maynard, he was really taking advantage of the fact that he was a better striker than his opponents. He may not have the same advantage in this fight, but he should still dominate this fight. I could go into the technical aspects, but it is much simpler to say that the level of quality in the lightweight division is light years ahead of the featherweight division. Florian by decision.
BRIAN FURBY: Florian’s first fight at featherweight is going to be an interesting one with Nunes on the other side of the cage. This is Florian’s first fight back since his decision loss to Gray Maynard in August of 2010, and while I’m sure Florian wants to get back to his “I finish fights” mentality, I like Nunes in this fight. He’s fought more recently than Florian has, and knows that a win over Florian wil surely up his stock with the UFC. Also, Nunes’ nickname is “The Gun”. Infinitely cooler than “Kenflo”. If you’re the betting type, I’d say Nunes is an excellent underdog pick. Nunes wins by split decision.
KELVIN HUNT: I think Nunes will give Florian a tougher fight than many expect as they have really similar skillsets. I think Florian’s game a bit more advanced though. If Nunes can mix in some takedowns he could steal a decision. However, I think Florian will win a decision here.
JOSH CROSS: The big question here is how well Florian was able to cut weight. I don’t think Florian can afford to be too weak going into this fight seeing as how Nunes’ last six fights have gone to decision. Florian has to be ready for three rounds, and since I think this fight will spend a lot of time on the ground, he cannot afford to be weak. Nunes is definitely dangerous, but I think that as long as the weight-cut went well, Florian will be able to win this fight. Pick: Florian via Decision.
JACK BRATCHER: Very interesting fight. Kenny makes his featherweight debut against a super tough Brazilian with great striking and a good submission game. I think Kenny’s wrestling, combined with his experience, will make the difference in this fight. Expect Kenny to stand and bang until he sees the opening to take the fight to the ground. TriStar is very good about mixing up their game and transitioning well and I see Kenny fighting that kind of fight. Kenny should be able to out-point Nunes for the decision.
Jon Olav Einemo +155 vs. Dave Herman -185
RICHARD MANN: Einemo does have an extremely impressive grappling background. However, he has been out of action for a significant amount of time and face some pretty serious injuries. This fight should be a throw back fight for Herman. Look for him to come out on fire like he did during his Elite XC run and finish this fight in the first round. However, if Einemo can survive early and get this fight to the ground, he has a shot to take it. Herman by TKO.
BRIAN FURBY: Maybe it’s just me, but I find it weird the UFC was going to have Shane Carwin originally fight Einemo, who appears to have not had an MMA fight since 2006. I don’t get it, but I guess it’s now Herman’s gain. I’m glad to see Dave in the UFC, and I think he’ll come up big with an impressive finish in the first. Herman wins by TKO in Round 1.
KELVIN HUNT: Einemo’s been training his standup with Golden Glory so he could have improved there, but we all know his bread and butter is the ground game. If he can’t get it there he’s probably going to lose, not to mention he hasn’t fought since 2006. I think he’ll gas and Herman will put him away via TKO.
JOSH CROSS: The main factor I think going into this fight is time. Einemo’s last fight was in 2006, and four years is a long time. I’m curious to see just how physically ready Einemo is for this fight after so much time has passed. Time also comes into play I think with the age difference between the two. Herman is nine years younger than Einemo, so will Einemo have to deal with a younger and faster Herman? I think that Herman will definitely have to make sure that he doesn’t get caught and submitted by Einemo, but as longer this fight remains standing, I think the advantage goes to Herman. Pick: Herman via TKO.
JACK BRATCHER: I couldn’t pick against Herman if I wanted to. I’ve been following Dave’s career for a long time and always knew this day would eventually come. He achieved so much without real training and started making improvements once he got into a good gym, but now that he is with Team Quest, he should have all the training partners and access to everything he needs to be the fighter he’s capable of being. I’m curious to see if his striking has improved or if he will just find a way to win like he has in the past. He sometimes has a tendency to get caught in disadvantageous positions, and if that happens with Einomo, he could get submitted. Einemo has a dangerous ground game but he hasn’t been in a real fight in so long who even knows what to expect. Lots of unknowns going into this bout but should be fun. Herman by knockout.
Demian Maia -110 vs. Mark Munoz -120
RICHARD MANN: Munoz has shown recently that he has knockout power at middleweight. If he can use his wrestling to keep this fight on the feet, he should be able to find Maia’s chin and finish the fight. On paper, Munoz’s wrestling should be more than enough to best Maia. However, the best Brazilian jiu-jitsu players have the ability to get the fight to the ground even when they are not the better wrestler. For example, the lateral drop Maia hit on Chael Sonnen was a thing of beauty. I favor Munoz in this fight, but a submission win for Maia would not be shocking. Munoz by TKO.
BRIAN FURBY: Maia has excellent submission skills, but I think Munoz’s wrestling and power is going to be too much for Maia to handle. With Munoz currently a slight underdog, it’s another great pickup for a bet. Munoz wins by Unanimous Decision.
KELVIN HUNT: I think Munoz is going to put Maia away and make a statement. He’s beginning to trust his striking and he packs very good power. Maia’s only way of winning is submitting Munoz. I think Munoz keeps it standing…hurts Maia and finishes him with ground and pound.
JOSH CROSS: I don’t see Maia submitting Munoz in this fight. Maia is good but I think Munoz will be able to defend against Maia’s attempts. That being said, unless Munoz can TKO Maia, then I think the fight goes to a decision like Maia’s last four fights. I don’t think that will happen though. Pick: Munoz via TKO.
JACK BRATCHER: This is a fun fight, but whenever we have a really good wrestler against a really good BJJ guy, I have to go with the wrestler. Maia’s stand up has improved and so has Munoz’s. Maia still only has two losses on his record: to Nate Marquardt and Anderson Silva. Munoz has great training partners and fought in March. Maia hasn’t fought since December and could be rusty. I’m going with Munoz via decision.
Donald Cerrone -420 vs. Vagner Rocha +320
RICHARD MANN: Cerrone’s weakness will always be his defensive wrestling. Rocha has never really showed a strong offensive wrestling game, so this should be Cerrone’s fight. On the feet, he has an attrition style that will work well against opponents like Rocha. Cerrone by decision.
BRIAN FURBY: Kudos to Rocha on getting the opportunity and stepping up to take the fight. As much as I’d love to pick Rocha, I think Cerrone’s edge in experience (both in number of fights and being on the big stage) is going to prove too much for Rocha to handle. Cerrone by TKO in Round 2.
KELVIN HUNT: I like Cerrone in this one. Cerrone will outpoint Rocha to win a decision.
JOSH CROSS: This fight is an enormous opportunity for Rocha, and he would definitely make a name for himself if he won. The thing is that I don’t think Rocha is ready for a fighter as good as Cerrone is. The Cowboy is much more experienced and just an overall better fighter in my opinion. The only real question for me is how Cerrone wins this fight. I know this is MMA and anything could happen, but Rocha isn’t a magician and I don’t think he’s hiding any rabbits in his hat. Pick: Cerrone via Decision.
JACK BRATCHER: Vagner Rocha is getting a huge opportunity here in his UFC debut. Rocha is a BJJ black belt under Pablo Popovitch and should have the advantage on the ground even though Cerrone is very adept at submission himself. Standing, Cerrone will have the advantage and should be able to out-point Rocha for a decision. I’d like to say Cerrone could win via TKO, but he’s never won via TKO, which I still find odd for someone who comes from a kickboxing background. Who knows, maybe this will be his first TKO victory as a pro — this could be the fight for it. Either way, Cerrone wins.
Editor’s Note: All odds provided courtesy of BetonFighting.com.