UFC 130 preview: Frank Mir looks to remain in title picture with a win over Roy Nelson

The co-main event for UFC 130 will be a heavyweight clash between two very good fighters in Roy Nelson and former UFC heavyweight champion Frank Mir.

The winner of this fight remains in contention for a heavyweight title shot with Brock Lesnar’s illness keeping him sidelined for the rest of 2011 more than likely.

Roy Nelson comes into this fight with an overall record of (15-5) with 8 wins via TKO/KO and 5 wins via submission. Nelson is coming off a 3 round war in which he lost against top contender Junior dos Santos back in August 2010. Nelson had won his two previous UFC fights via devastating first round knockouts. Nelson has good power in his hands, but many casual fans don’t know that Nelson is a very accomplished grappler as well. He is a black belt in jiu-jitsu under Renzo Gracie and  has enjoyed success in multiple grappling tournaments, including a win over Frank Mir back in 2003. He is as durable as they come and is surprisingly athletic even though his physique says otherwise.

Frank Mir comes into this fight with an overall record of (14-5) with 8 wins via submission and 3 wins via TKO/KO. Mir is coming off a third round knockout of Mirko Cro Cop back in Septermber 2010. He got dominated by heavyweight contender Shane Carwin in the matchup prior to that. Mir brings a good kickboxing game and is an accomplished grappler in his own right. The knock on Mir in the past has been his cardio and I’m sure it’s something that Roy Nelson will try to expose in this match up.

Linesmaker has Mir as the betting favorite at (-145) and Nelson as the underdog at (+115).

I know it sounds cliche, but the key for Nelson in this fight is simply to make Frank Mir uncomfortable and he can do that in several different ways. Nelson loves to throw that big right hand after his jab and he could use that to close the distance against Mir. At that point he could try to take Mir down from the clinch position or put Mir against the cage which would keep Mir from setting up his strikes. Mir likes to throw the same 3 punch combination with his hands as he charges forward and Nelson could use Mir’s momentum to close the distance. I think Mir will begin to fade if Nelson is able to make him carry his weight, and a tired Frank Mir would be ripe for the picking.

Mir simply needs to keep his distance and set up his strikes. Nelson’s best defense is often blocking punches with his face, in other words, he gets hit quite a bit. However, he has a great chin and I doubt that Mir has the power to knock him out when looking at the shots that Nelson absorbed from heavy hitter Junior dos Santos. The only way I see Mir winning this fight is if he either outpoints Nelson in the standup game, or puts some punches together that knock Nelson out.

On the other hand, I think Nelson has the cardio advantage, has the power advantage, and has the ability to get Mir to the ground if he wants to. Mir’s wrestling isn’t the best in the world, and I get the feeling that he thinks his striking is a tad better than it really is, so he won’t be shooting for takedowns in my opinion. I like Nelson in this fight. I think he’ll make Mir fight at his pace and gradually wear Mir down and either win a decision or finish Mir late in the fight.