The ProMMAnow.com staff has come together again to share our thoughts and predictions for “UFC 119: Mir vs. Cro Cop,” which takes place this Saturday, Sept. 25 at the Conseco Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, Ind.

The event features former UFC heavyweight champion Frank Mir (13-5) taking on the Pride 2006 open weight tournament champion and legendary striker Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic (27-7-2, 1 NC) in the main event.

In the co-main event, undefeated light heavyweight and winner of The Ultimate Fighter: Team Nogueira vs. Team Mir, Ryan “Darth” Bader (11-0) tries to earn his name among the sport’s elite as he faces top-10 ranked Pride superstar Antonio Rogerio “Minotoro” Nogueira (19-3).

Also competing at UFC 119, former UFC lightweight champion Sean “The Muscle Shark” Sherk (33-4-1) makes his return to the Octagon after a 16-month hiatus to take on the undefeated current number nine ranked lightweight in the world Evan Dunham (11-0).

And former lightweight champ Matt “The Terror” Serra (11-6) will face local hero and “Fight of the Night” jedi Chris “Lights Out” Lytle (29-17-5).

A special thanks to UFC veteran Mike Ciesnolevicz, who joined us with his UFC 119 predictions too. So without further ado, here are the ProMMAnow.com UFC 119 staff picks:

Frank Mir vs. Mirko Cro Cop

BRIAN FURBY: Mir could probably just submit Cro Cop fairly easily, but after he was able to use his much-improved striking skills to nearly KO Kongo before choking him unconscious, he’ll look to do the same against Cro Cop. The health of Cro Cop’s eye has been a debate this week and as long as he’s cleared to fight it shouldn’t matter, but a quick loss to Mir will have the excuses start flowing again. Mir by submission in Round 1.

JOHN BUHL: My heart says Cro Cop, but my brain says Mir. Even before the eye injury rumors surfaced and without taking Cro Cop’s shortened training camp into account, at this point in both men’s careers, it’s Mir’s fight to lose. Mir has the wrestling advantage and at this point in Cro Cop’s career, Cro Cop’s striking and footwork aren’t sharp enough anymore to threaten Frank. I’ll take Mir by third round stoppage.

RICHARD MANN: As Cousin Sal would say “we are going to learn a lot about these guys from this fight.” The smart money is on Mir. If he can get the fight to the ground he should have an advantage. On the other hand, Mir does not like getting hit in the face. Now, most fighters don’t like getting hit, but Mir folds up like a chair when he tastes any kind of power. Filipovic can throw, but Mir should be schooled enough to stay out of trouble on the feet and take the decision. Mir by decision.

JACK BRATCHER: If Mir stood still and let Cro Cop kick him in the head, the ring girls would be looking for Frank’s head under rows 5-10 somewhere. But for the most part Mir is a smart fighter (except when he thought he could rest in the clinch with Shane Carwin), and won’t slow down or give Cro Cop the distance he needs to fire off a “hospital” or “cemetery” kick. Short of a big head kick, I don’t really see any other way Cro Cop would win this fight. I am interested to see if Mir can take out Cro Cop on the feet with his  boxing. While Cro Cop does have great kicks, his boxing leaves something to be desired and Mir just might be the better boxer. I could see Mir rocking him with some punches, getting him to the ground then choking him out or submitting Cro Cop much like Cro Cop himself did to Pat Barry in his last fight, except with better technique. Mir via submission in round one or two.

MIKE CIESNOLEVICZ: This is a weird fight for me because I like both guys styles and I always root for them both. I think Mir will be too big and well rounded for Cro Cop and get the submission in the first round.

Ryan Bader vs. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira

BRIAN FURBY: Can the student beat the teacher’s brother? The short answer is yes, but Nogueira won’t make it easy on Bader. Easily Bader’s toughest fight to date, this fight will be an excellent judge of Bader’s true potential in the UFC light heavyweight division. Nogueira’s striking will be more technical but Bader packs more power. Bader’s wrestling is stronger than Nogueira’s, and Nogueira obviously has better jiu jitsu. This looks to be an excellent three round battle with Bader squeaking out a close decision. Nogueira came out on the better side in his split decision against Brilz, but won’t be so lucky here. Bader wins by split decision.

JOHN BUHL: Was Nogueira’s performance against Jason Brilz a warning sign about Nogueira’s ability to hand wrestlers, or simply a case of Lil Nog underestimating a late replacement? It could be a bit of both, but Bader brings a lot more athleticism to the table than Brilz, a full training camp to prepare, and a heavy right hand. Bader wins by decision while Dan Hardy continues whining about lay-and-pray wrestlers.

RICHARD MANN: Lil Nog really only has one way to win this fight. If Bader gases out early, Nogueira might be able to flex some boxing game. Other than that, he really has no chance. If Bader is smart he will follow the gameplan laid out by Jason Brilz. However, even if he doesn’t, he should be in line for a win here. Reports coming out of Brazil have said that Nogueira’s training camp has been a disaster. Bader by decision.

JACK BRATCHER: Wow, I’m surprised to see all my cohorts have picked Bader to win via decision. If you had asked someone a few years ago if a TUF winner would one day defeat one of the Nogueira brothers, it would seem so far-fetched. But that speaks to the talent of Bader. He sort of reminds me of a Matt Hughes 2.0. He has that great wrestling base but is very proficient, smooth and powerful with his striking. A great wrestler like Bader who is also well-versed in submissions is very hard to submit. While it is possible Nogueira could out-box Bader if they just stood and boxed, Bader has so many other tools, it doesn’t even matter. The scariest thing about Bader is he keeps getting better and stronger and more and more comfortable with his striking. Expect more and more knockouts from this guy, starting with Nogueira. Bader via TKO round one. I think he wins very impressively, shoots himself maybe one or two fights (at the most) away from a title shot.

MIKE CIESNOLEVICZ: I gotta say Bader by decision in this fight. I think Brilz is a lesser version of Bader and he took Nog to the wire.

Matt Serra vs. Chris Lytle

BRIAN FURBY: In a rematch of their TUF finale from nearly four years ago, Lytle looks to avenge his split decision loss to Serra. Since that fight, Serra has gone 2-2 and Lytle has gone 7-4. Serra hasn’t fought in seven months, Lytle hasn’t fought in two. Serra is always scrappy, and these two should put on an entertaining fight. However, unless Serra gets lucky early like he did against GSP, I don’t see a decision going his way this time. Lytle by unanimous decision.

JOHN BUHL: When Chris Lytle and Matt Serra fought way back at The Ultimate Fighter 4 Finale, I picked Lytle, figuring his superior boxing and HIGHLY underrated grappling would see him through. It didn’t, in what turned out to be a highly boring split decision mainly featuring Serra pushing Lytle to the cage looking for the takedown and failing miserably. I guess you could say it was reminiscent of the Andre Winner vs. Nik Lentz bout. But I’m guessing Lytle will come in with a smarter gameplan and dictate the pace this time around instead of getting pushed up against the fence again and having a high profile teammate whine on his behalf about guys in the UFC who don’t come in to fight. (If you’re keeping score at home, that’s Hardy reference #2.)

RICHARD MANN: First, allow me to say that I scored their first fight 30-27 for Lytle. However, if Lytle got the deserving nod, we would have never had the biggest title-fight upset in UFC history, Serra over GSP. Recently, I have continually said that Lytle needs to stop fighting for bonus checks and get back to his old game. Now, I am of the mindset that he can’t actually do that. Maybe his wild-slugging style damaged him somehow. Expect Serra to keep his distance and land more shots on the feet.. If the fight goes to the ground expect a stalemate. I may get this pick wrong, but I guarantee this fight will not be as boring as their first encounter. Serra by decision.

JACK BRATCHER: Lytle is coming of a three-fight win streak over Kevin Burns (decision), Brian Foster (submission) and most recently, Matt Brown (submission). Serra won his last fight via TKO against Frank Trigg, but lost his previous two against Matt Hughes and Georges St-Pierre. Neither of these guys will ever be title-holders (again) but it’s an interesting fight between two veterans. Serra has the more powerful big punch, but Lytle has the better boxing. This is the first time Serra will have fought more than once in a year since 2004 — isn’t that odd? Lytle has never fought less than three times a year his whole career. What does that mean? I don’t know, except maybe Serra hasn’t taken as much punishment over the years. But I’m going to go with Matt Serra. He usually has trouble with wrestlers which Lytle is not and I think he might be able to land the big shot on Lytle. Lets go crazy and say Serra via third round TKO.

MIKE CIESNOLEVICZ: Matt Serra is my boy, always been one of my favorites. I think he will win the decision like last time they fought.

Evan Dunham vs. Sean Sherk

BRIAN FURBY: Dunham is a slight favorite in this fight, as well he should be. With Dunham having beat Efrain Escudero and Tyson Griffin in his last two fights, and with the sixteen month layoff that Sherk is returning from, it makes sense. I’ve always been a fan of Sherk, but Dunham will continue his move up the lightweight ladder with this fight. Sherk will start off as he does a lot of the time trying to strike, but Dunham’s reach will frustrate him enough that he’ll quickly transition to wrestling. But Escudero’s wrestling couldn’t save him against Dunham and neither will Sherk’s. Dunham by unanimous decision.

JOHN BUHL: This is a tough one. Sherk is as tough as they come and has only lost to the best of the best (a prime Matt Hughes, Georges St. Pierre, B.J. Penn, and Frankie Edgar). With his wrestling and submission defense, I could see Sherk grinding out a decision, certainly. Whether he would land enough strikes from the top to make Dan Hardy happy remains to be seen. Maybe we need a ground-and-pound shot clock, akin to the NBA, to let us know when the fight has transformed from a combat sport to sweaty man-hugging where the guy being smothered is no longer responsible for failing to improve his position (That’s #3!). Back to the topic at hand. I think this is Dunham’s time to shine. He has great BJJ and solid stand-up, not to mention a reach advantage that I expect him to take full advantage of one way or another. As impressive as he looked against Tyson Griffin, I think Dunham can eek out the decision here.

RICHARD MANN: Dunham’s coming out party was his submission win over Efrain Escudero. Since then, Escudero has gotten subbed by a garage-training Brazilian and been cut. So, what does that really say about Dunham? Dunham has shown a propensity to threaten off his back and get back to his feet, but he hasn’t shown the best takedown defense. Their should be no reason to think that Sherk can’t continually get takedowns.. This win will make Sherk relevant again just in time to reignite the mentally-impish “boring wrestlers in MMA” debate. Sherk by decision.

JACK BRATCHER: Who the hell knows what Sherk has been up to the last 16  months? Maybe he’s grown a foot in length on each arm and has Jon Jones style athleticism and striking? Or maybe he just got a year older. Evan Dunham surprised a lot of people with his win over Tyson Griffin. And even his win over Marcus Aurelio was impressive. But a well-trained Sherk should be able to take Dunham down and grind it out like only the Muscle Shark can. Gotta go with my man Mann on this one and pick Sherk via decision.

MIKE CIESNOLEVICZ: I always think Dunham will lose and he wins big fights. This kid could be the future of 155. I take Dunham over Sherk at this point in his career, maybe submission, maybe decision.

Jeremy Stephens vs. Melvin Guillard

BRIAN FURBY: This is my call for Fight of the Night, and potentially KO of the Night. Both guys are going to come out swinging and keep up a ridiculous pace until one of them goes down or the bell rings. A couple years ago I would have said Stephens takes it because of Melvin’s almost total lack of any discipline. However, since he joined up with Greg Jackson he seems to have calmed down and is starting to realize his potential. I see Melvin coming out on top of a split decision if he doesn’t get a KO early in the fight. Guillard by split decision.

JOHN BUHL: In Stephens and Guillard, we have two very athletic (some might even say explosive) fighters that will likely produce the fight of the night. There are still questions, at least in my mind, about Guillard’s submission defense, but he has solid wrestling and his boxing is downright nasty. I’m also curious to see how he progresses now that he’s training with Greg Jackson’s camp. This fight is tailor-made for Guillard to pick up a 2nd round KO victory. This fight gets the Dan Hardy seal of approval (#4).

RICHARD MANN: In a match up between two guys with huge power, it is probably wise to pick the guy with the better chin. Guillard got dropped by a jab from Joe Stevenson, so his chin is questionable. However, it is interesting to note that after the fight he tested positive for cocaine. Maybe Freud’s drug of choice makes it harder to take damage, look what happened to Tony Montana at the end of Scarface. With that being said Stephens is probably the better technical boxer too. Look for him to put hands on Guillard and finish the fight.. Stephens by TKO.

JACK BRATCHER: Guillard’s athleticism is something kin to Spiderman on cocaine (wait, didn’t Guillard get popped for cocaine — see what I mean). Both guys fought Tibau last year with Guillard winning a decision and Stephens losing a decision. Now that Guillard is “focused” and under the cozy wing and leadership of the Jackson/Winklejohn camp, I really think the sky is the limit for this guy. The better he gets, the more fun he is to watch. Stephens has big power but I think Guillard will be too fast and will score his own TKO in round two or three, being the first to stop “Lil’ Heathen” by strikes (maybe it will go to decision, but Guillard gets it).

CB Dollaway vs. Joe Doerksen

BRIAN FURBY: Doerksen definitely has the skillset to submit Dollaway but it probably won’t happen. Dollaway will use his wrestling to overwhelm Doerksen early, setting up some solid ground and pound for a TKO win, or a good TKO on the feet once he gets Doerksen scrambling. Dollaway by TKO in Round 1.

JOHN BUHL: I’ll play it safe here and take Dollaway by unanimous decision. However, if Doerksen latches on with a submission, it’ll be interesting to see if Dollaway employs the fake tapping technique.

RICHARD MANN: At this point in his career, Doerksen does not belong in the UFC. He is only getting another fight because Tom Lawlor spends more time playing with midgets than doing cardio. Expect Dollaway to get a win with ease. Dollaway by TKO.

JACK BRATCHER: Joe Doerksen had some big wins in his career many years ago, winning 33 by submission, 8 by (T)KO and 5 by decision. CB has 12 fights. There’s a huge discrepancy in their experience. Maybe CB will put Doerksen in a Peruvian necktie… Unfortunately I see this fight either being filled with three rounds of sub-standard striking or CB grinding it out. Either way, the younger more well-rounded Dolaway should be able to take the win.

3 thoughts on “ProMMAnow.com UFC 119 staff picks”
  1. Damn the one time in the past 3 UFCs I dont get picks in, I had a perfect day. Although the bad score cards helped me out IMO. DAMN Damn Damn

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