James Toney’s weight might mean upset chances are slimmer

Clearly the build up to UFC 118 hasn’t featured enough Randy Couture vs. James Toney talk, so let’s keep it going by looking at how much Toney tipped the scales at today’s weigh in.

And the verdict is: 237 lbs. If you plunked a few bucks down on Toney hoping he pulls off the miraculous, be aware that his extra weight might mean his chances got slimmer.

According to boxrec.com, this much weight isn’t foreign territory for Toney in his boxing career. He beat a fairly durable Dominick Guinn in 2005 while weighing 235 and drew with Hasim Rahman the following year at 237. His next two bouts, against Samuel Peter in 2006 and 2007, he weighed 233 and 234 respectively.

However, having watched the fight with Rahman, Toney clearly started to fade down the stretch. And while he deserves credit for hanging in with a much bigger and very hard-hitting Peter, Toney’s reflexes certainly didn’t improve between the first and second bout.

It’s possible to carry extra weight at an older age and still perform well. Couture of course did it in winning back the UFC heavyweight title  not too long ago, and Bernard Hopkins elevated himself from an all-time middleweight great to an all-time pound-for-pound boxing great by going up to the 175-pound division and finding success there.

But if carrying around this much weight saw him fade down the stretch in boxing matches four or five years ago, I certainly don’t see it providing any benefit against Couture. Certainly a three-round MMA fight isn’t anywhere near the marathon of a 12-round boxing match.

Toney, though, will need good, quick footwork and what is left of his reflexes at 100 percent to offset Couture’s wrestling and overall MMA experience. In his last fight, Toney weighed in at 217.5 lbs.

Best case scenario, he’s put on 30-some pounds of muscle, which I doubt will help him in any department. Worst case scenario, he’s not in the best shape to back up his trash talk. If his weigh-in photo above is any indication, Toney’s chances are looking worse than they did yesterday.

UFC 118 COVERAGE