UFC 118: Penn vs. Edgar 2” takes place this Saturday, Aug. 28, at TD Garden in Boston, Mass. Headlining the card is a rematch between UFC lightweight champ Frankie Edgar and B.J. Penn. Penn is out to prove he is the real champion and his loss to Edgar was just a fluke.

The fight getting all the attention on this card is the co-main event between Randy Couture and professional boxer, IBA heavyweight champion James Toney. Toney claims his boxing prowess is enough to defeat one of the most decorated and honored champions in MMA history. Couture is calling bullshit. There’s only one way to find out.

Other fights on this card include a lightweight contender battle between Kenny Florian and Gray Maynard which will determine who gets a shot at the winner of Penn vs. Edgar. Also,  Nick Diaz takes on Marcus Davis, Demian Maia faces Mario Miranda and Joe Lauzon will fight Gabe Ruediger.

The ProMMAnow.com gives our UFC 118 staff picks below. Whether it be my prediction that Edgar will defeat Penn in the main event or John Buhl’s pick that Mario Miranda will TKO Demian Maia, take a look and let us know what you think. If you think we’re completely off base let us know why, and if you agree, well, you can let us know that too.

We talked about our UFC 118 predictions and had a roundtable discussion on Thursday evening’s episode of The Cageside Beat, the official radio show of ProMMAnow.com. Be sure to check that out as well as our picks below to get a comprehensive preview and understanding of the match-ups at UFC 118.

Joe Lauzon vs. Gabe Ruediger

DENNY HODGE: There has been a lot of talk back and forth between these two on the online forums, and this fight marks the return of “Godzilla” back into the UFC after he put together a string of six straight victories, all of which he finished by either submission or TKO. Lauzon is 2-2 in his last four outings in the Octagon, and will be looking to make a point against Ruediger, which he will, albeit by a unanimous decision victory and not be a finish of any kind.

JOHN BUHL: Lauzon by Unanimous Decision. Credit to Ruediger for making his way back to the UFC after a not-so-memorable stint on TUF a few years ago. But I can’t think of any particular aspect of the fight game where he’ll have an advantage over his former castmate Lauzon. As long as Lauzon doesn’t get overwhelmed fighting in front of his hometown crowd, I like his boxing and grappling base to carry him through.

JACK BRATCHER: Ruediger was called in on short notice to replace Terry Etim. It’s kind of funny when Dana White was asked about how Gabe got called back to the UFC he was clueless. He said you’ll have to ask Joe Silva. The point being, he had nothing to do with it. That’s kind of funny. Anyway, I’m going to pick Gabe. I used to really like Lauzon but he really hasn’t lived up to his potential. He’s a quick little dude and I could see him coming out real fast and trying to end it quick with a submission. However, even though Gabe only had a couple weeks to prepare, I think he’s improved and matured since the TUF show nearly four years ago. I remember seeing Gabe’s last fight and being really impressed and can’t say the same about Joe. I think Joe will try to stand with him and get put out TKO. These guys don’t really care for each other and it should be a fun fight to start the night out on Spike TV.

RICHARD MANN: This is a really close fight. Even though Ruediger was depicted as a clown on TUF, he is actually a quality mid-level lightweight. However, he is mostly a grappler. Lauzon should have the advantage on the ground, so hopefully we see an exciting submission battle. Lauzon by decision.

BRIAN FURBY: Anybody else remember the look Lauzon gave the camera when Ruediger was trying to cut weight on TUF? I can’t remember if that look was pre or post-colonic, but it was clear at the time that Lauzon had a low opinion of how seriously Ruediger was taking his fight training. While Ruediger has improved post-TUF, Lauzon has as well, and should make quick work of Ruediger. Lauzon by submission in Round 1.

Nate Diaz vs. Marcus Davis

DENNY HODGE: Will Diaz, after coming off of a surprising TKO finish of Markham in his debut at 170, stand and bang with Davis? He might test the waters early, but I see this fight ending up on the ground. Davis is no slouch on the ground, only suffering one loss by submission in his career, so this one could possibly be fight of the night if it turns into a boxing match. That being said, I think Diaz will find away to turn this into a grappling match and Davis his second career loss by submission.

JOHN BUHL: Davis by Split Decision. The way Diaz beat up on Rory Markham in his first bout at 170, I’m probably over-analyzing this one. Davis, though, has much sharper, crisper boxing than Diaz, and Diaz doesn’t have the wrestling to take the fight to the mat. So I’ll take the “Irish Hand Grenade,” but only barely.

JACK BRATCHER: Nate Diaz at 170 is going to crush Marcus Davis like a bug. On the feet or on the ground it don’t matter. Diaz is so young and so fresh, so young and so fresh – just keeps improving. Just as his brother’s boxing keeps improving, so does his. If it goes to the ground, we know Diaz can submit most people but even on the feet I think his long reach, height and size will be too much for Davis. Diaz was stopped only once in his career, and that was an armbar from Mr. Hermes Franca. Davis will not out box him, I’m tellin ya right now. I’m gonna go with a third round TKO for Diaz… although I could see him hurting Davis, then jumping on him with a submission too.

RICHARD MANN: Davis the most overrated fighter in the entire UFC. He has one win over a quality fighter, and Chris Lytle was idiotically looking for a “Fight of the Night” bonus. What is his other big win, a leg lock on Pete Spratt? Despite being the smaller fighter, Diaz should be able to chew up Davis. If the fight stays on the feet he should be able to out land Davis. If it goes to the ground Davis will not stand a chance. Diaz by decision.

BRIAN FURBY: I like Davis in this fight. Diaz’s lanky, non-traditional stance could frustrate Davis for a while, and if Diaz lands enough, Davis could find himself in trouble. But, Davis is no stranger to striking battles and has been able to get inside on guys with Diaz’s reach before. Davis will work himself inside Diaz’s reach and punish him, but not until both of the guys have put out a fight of the night performance. Davis by TKO in Round 3.

Demian Maia vs. Mario Miranda

DENNY HODGE: Maia will be looking to shine in his first fight since his lopsided loss to Anderson Silva, but he will have to be careful with Miranda while the fight is on the feet. Miranda has won half of his fights by (T)KO and will pose a threat to Maia while standing, but Maia will have a very decisive advantage on the ground as one of the best MMA oriented jiu jitsu technicians on the planet. Maia will get this fight into his galaxy and the stars will align for another “Submission of the Night” award for him..

JOHN BUHL: Miranda by Unanimous Decision. Perhaps inspired by Jack’s pick of Chad Griggs to beat Bobby Lashley, I’m going to throw a hail mary and call for the upset here. Maia has established himself as one of the top dogs at 185 with a 6-2 mark in the UFC. However, his striking is still a work in progress. Miranda has solid Muay Thai and a very good wrestling (four time Brazilian champion) and jiu jitsu base. I’m not dumb enough to compare his BJJ black belt to Maia’s, but he’s not a fish out of water on the mat, and I believe his wrestling will help him take the fight where he wants and his striking will make the difference.

JACK BRATCHER: Interesting match-up. The whole question is, can Miranda keep from getting submitted? This is undoubtedly the biggest fight of Miranda’s life and if he catches Maia, it could be a short night for the BJJ black belt. Maia’s only losses have been, in his last fight to Anderson Silva, and then a KO loss to Nate Marquardt. Miranda’s only loss is a TKO loss to Gerald Harris. Some how, some way, I think Maia will do what he does best, get his hands on Miranda and lock on something that will either cause Miranda to give up or go to sleep. Maia by second round submission.

RICHARD MANN: Maia should have the advantage here. Miranda normally makes his money by getting on top and hustling fighters on the ground. That would play right in to Maia’s nasty submission game. On top of that the Brazilian jiu-jitsu specialist is an underrated takedown artist. Maia is also smart enough to not get sucked into a striking game. Maia by submission.

BRIAN FURBY: Maia is a huge favorite with the oddsmakers in this fight, and he stands to finish Miranda with another bonus winning submission. However, with the odds so far in Maia’s favor, Miranda has nothing to lose and will come out swinging that way. Maia will look for the quick takedown and submission, and needs to accomplish that as his hands are nowhere near Miranda’s. Demian Maia wins by submission in Round 1.

Kenny Florian vs. Gray Maynard

DENNY HODGE: Maynard has tried to showcase his improved stand up of late, but he won’t take that chance in this fight with Florian. If he does, he will get finished quickly. Instead, we all know that we will see repeated takedown attempts, which he will be successful at. Florian has great hips and won’t be held there the entire fight, but he can’t spend too much time on his back or he will lose by decision. Florian will keep this one upright enough to score enough points en route to a decision victory over Maynard.

JOHN BUHL: Florian by Unanimous Decision. I’m not confident in this pick in the slightest. If you’re a betting person (though gambling is illegal most places and I don’t condone such nefarious activities), stay away from this fight. Florian is the more well-rounded mixed martial artist, no doubt. Nasty leg kicks, improving boxing, and great jiu jitsu. However, Maynard is REALLY big and hits pretty darn hard. He’s like a mini Josh Koscheck. Overhand right, shoot in for the legs, slam, drop some ground and pound, rinse and repeat. In fact, almost every ounce of common sense is telling me that Maynard will out-muscle Florian and grind out a fairly boring decision. But one thing gives me pause…Maynard’s win over Nate Diaz. Maynard, with his far superior wrestling, had the luxury of deciding where to take the fight. As it turned out, he preferred staying far away from Diaz’s guard, instead engaging in a kickboxing contest that resulted in a split decision. Florian isn’t easy to take down even if Maynard plans to go there, and Florian has crisper striking than Diaz.

JACK BRATCHER: Alrighty. I’m going to go with Mr. Ken-Flo, Kenny Florian and I’ll tell you why. Kenny has sought out the help he’s needed to fix the holes in his game. Unlike most professionals, he has taken an honest look at himself without ego and taken the necessary steps to better himself, thus his reason for working with GSP and the magical Firas Zihabi of TriStar. He picked up his bags and left longtime coach Dellagrotte and that takes some guts. Gray’s only real chance in this fight would be his wrestling. And Kenny hasn’t lost to a wrestler since 2006 when he lost to Sean Sherk. His only loss since then was to B.J. Penn via submission. Gray will not submit Kenny and Kenny’s wrestling and takedown defense have improved enough to keep off the ground. If he does get put on the ground, he won’t stay there long unless he chooses to throw a submission finish on Maynard. Kenny will give Gray Maynard his first professional loss via rear-naked choke. He will drive home the point of his deservedness of a title shot. Although Dana White has already said whoever wins, be it either by split decision, unanimous decision, KO  or submission, the winner will get a title shot at Georges St-Pierre.

RICHARD MANN: In theory, Maynard should be able to get a few takedowns and steal two of the three rounds. However, Maynard does not have the single-minded focus of someone like Chael Sonnen. He will try to strike and get embarrassed. It is a shamed really since his wrestling is what got him into his current position. Florian’s progression is truly amazing and his more well-rounded game will carry him to victory. Florian by decision.

BRIAN FURBY: Have Florian’s skills improved enough since he fought Sean Sherk so that Maynard won’t be able to stifle him with wrestling a la Sean Sherk? Maybe. Florian has more speed in his hands and his BJJ is better than Maynard’s, but Maynard’s wrestling is ahead of Florian’s by leaps and bounds and his base is solid enough so that he should be able to withstand any takedown attempt that Florian goes for. The stakes are high as the winner of this fight is next in line for a lightweight title shot. If Maynard decides to take Florian down, he will likely succeed, but then fall prey to KenFlo’s nasty elbows from the bottom. Since the Sherk fight, Florian’s mantra has been “I finish fights”. While that is generally true, Maynard will put up enough of a fight that KenFlo will have to truly earn his victory in a closely contested decision. Kenny Florian wins by split decision.

Randy Couture vs. James Toney

DENNY HODGE: Usually we know that Couture is going to get his opponent on the cage, and engage with some dirty boxing from the clinch, before he gets a body lock take down and beats his guy up. Couture can’t stand that close and test Toney’s hands, and he won’t. I see him throwing a couple of combos early just to set up a takedown, where he will ground and pound Toney out very early. Toney has absolutely no chance if he ends up on his back, and that is exactly where he will be….

JOHN BUHL: Couture by TKO Rd. 1. This is where Jack will probably remind everyone that he’s nervous for Randy, given his age and whether he still has the explosiveness to shoot in for Toney’s legs and get him to the ground without eating some serious leather. But that’s the beauty of Couture’s game — he doesn’t need to rely on a double leg takedown. His Greco-Roman clinch game is about as good as you’ll see in MMA, and unlike the good ole double leg shoot, it requires good technique more than sheer explosiveness. That’s why I’ve argued a guy like Couture can stay relevant a lot longer than, say Tito Ortiz. Of course, given Toney’s lack of experience, even an exhausted, dehydrated Bobby Lashley could probably take Toney down. Does Toney have a puncher’s chance? Sure. I mean, we all saw what Ray Mercer did to Tim Sylvia, right? Here’s the difference: Toney doesn’t hit as hard as Mercer. He doesn’t have that kind of one-punch power and never has. He’s relied over the years on his natural ability, technique, and reflexes. As for his reflexes, well those have been on the decline for the past couple of years. Couture will take him down and pound the snot out of him, all the while saying, “Who’s the princess now?”

JACK BRATCHER: John is right. I am nervous for Couture, but not because I think he needs a double leg. I’m nervous for him to get close enough to Toney to be able to touch him. With four ounce gloves, all Toney has to do is touch Couture, that’s it, touch him and this fight is over. He has thrown so many punches in his life, has become so proficient at that one aspect of fighting, his ability to finish a fight with his fists far exceeds anyone else in the UFC by a long shot. Having said that… Randy Couture is a very smart man. Much more so than Tim Sylvia. That’s why Tim Sylvia is working as a police officer in Bumphukt, Egypt, and Randy Couture is making movies with Sylvester Stallone and still fighting as a professional athlete on the biggest stage in the world. Randy is known as the master game-planner for a reason. He will look at the entire situation like a mathematical problem that needs to be solved. He’s going to have to use some tools to get Toney distracted enough so he can get his arms around him and put him on the ground. That is Randy’s only chance of winning. It’s going to be like a big alligator coming after Steve Irwin or a Aborigine warrior hunting down a middle-aged white dentist on Safari in the Outback… Toney is going to be looking to kill Randy Couture with his fists and Couture is going to have to use real mixed martial arts to overcome this thief who has broken into the MMA temple trying to steal some of our glory. For the sake of true martial arts everywhere (and the spirit of Bruce Lee), Couture must show the world, remind the world, what true martial arts is all about. The odds favor Couture succeeding in this, so I’m picking Randy for a first round rear naked choke submission.

RICHARD MANN: Recently, I have dedicated my whole life to covering MMA. If Toney wins my whole life will be a fraud because boxing will be the superior combat sport! What will I do? In reality this fight does not matter at all. Couture will finish a takedown and submit Toney with a choke. Couture by submission.

BRIAN FURBY: Popular opinion would lead us to believe that Toney still has the KO power to take out the often KO prone Couture. Does Toney still have that power? Absolutely. Will he be able to effectively use on Couture? Absolutely not. Couture knows exactly what Toney’s strengths are and how to avoid them, take Toney down and pound out a TKO win early on. Randy Couture wins by TKO in Round 1.

B.J. Penn vs. Frankie Edgar

DENNY HODGE: This fight will be the polar opposite of the first fight. Edgar will feel the pressure of trying to defend the title for the first time, while Penn will be focusing on finishing the fight. Penn will do just that, totally outmatching Edgar on the feet this time around, and will finish him by TKO within the first two rounds.

JOHN BUHL: Penn by Unanimous Decision. Like many, I felt that Penn landed the more effective strikes in their first bout. However, credit should go to Edgar for pushing the pace and keeping Penn off balance with his movement and timing. Contrary to their first bout when I picked Penn to win without even giving it a second thought, Edgar at least proved he can hold his own for 25 minutes with Penn. Nevertheless, maybe because I’m stubborn, I’ll still pick Penn to win back his title. I don’t think Edgar can fight any better than he did to win the title at UFC 112, and Penn should be able to make the adjustments necessary to dictate the tempo and ensure he comes out victorious. However, if Penn spends too much time reacting off of what Edgar does and pacing himself, we could be in for a repeat performance.

JACK BRATCHER: About 60% of Frankie Edgar’s wins have come by decision. He’s a grinder and one of those little guys who will hit you with a thousand shots but none of them really do a lot of damage, it’s just an accumulation of nagging throbs against your skull like a woodpecker on a barn door. Penn has claimed to had a sort of an epiphany since their first fight. It seems to involve a realization that a champion must have his body, mind and soul all in harmony. Frankly, it sounded like maybe he didn’t train as hard physically but spent more time on the mental and spiritual aspects of himself. That’s how I took it. This pick is not cut and dry for me. Edgar is going to have the confidence of his first win behind him. Any sort of intimidation he may have had (maybe he didn’t have any to start with, but if he did) in the first fight certainly won’t be there this time. They say a motivated BJ Penn is a dangerous BJ Penn, and he certainly sounds motivated. Edgar also wants to prove his first win wasn’t a fluke and that will provide extra motivation for him as well. This could certainly be fight of the night and has the potential to be an all out war. I’m curious to see what BJ’s weight is going to be. Edgar has fought some tough guys and his only loss was a decision loss to Gray Maynard, a tough as nails wrestler. Edgar showed in his first fight with Penn, that the master can be put on the ground, despite Rogan’s legendary rants about Penn’s flexibility.  The more I think about this fight, the more I just think that Edgar is a bad match up style-wise for B.J. No, Edgar isn’t the most dynamic finisher in the world, but he is a solid well-rounded fighter. He’s proven he can out strike B.J. (at least in the judges’ eyes) and I don’t see B.J. putting Edgar on his back or even getting him in a position where he could submit him. The fact that Edgar doesn’t really have to cut weight is a huge benefit for him cardio-wise too as B.J.’s never been known for great cardio. I’ve talked myself into picking Edgar via TKO. (I know, it sounds crazy to me too).

RICHARD MANN: I made the mistake of watching the UFC 118 countdown show. Not only can I never have that hour of my life back, but also the viewing cemented my pick of Penn. On the show, they did not even have any Edgar highlights from the first fight to show. At one point the producers even froze the video and magnified it to show that Edgar landed a punch. Penn had a terrible performance in their first fight, and he still won the fight. I wonder how this one is going to go? Penn by submission.

BRIAN FURBY: Will Penn find the redemption he seeks in this rematch against Edgar? I think the answer is yes. Penn did not look like himself in the last fight, and he’s out to show that his loss to Edgar was a fluke, and to truly do this he’ll have to finish Edgar. Edgar won’t roll over, though, and his crisp striking should be able to keep Penn at bay for at least half the fight. But Penn will capitalize on a small mistake by Edgar and get back his title. BJ Penn by TKO in Round 3.

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5 thoughts on “ProMMAnow.com UFC 118 staff picks”
  1. So I’m asking if I beat everybody on here can i get a job? :)

    I got:
    Lauzon by sub rd. 2
    Diaz by sub rd. 3(in pretty damn good fight)
    Maia by Sub rd. 2(if he can get Chael down, he’ll get Miranda down)
    Florian by Sub rd. 3(after he hurts Maynard on the feet
    Penn by RNC(I am still pretty much 50/50 on this fight, but even against a guy he has a loss to I can’t go against Penn…)

  2. ProMMA- Exactly. I need a change from professional keyboard warrior!

    Holy shit I did leave out Couture-Toney. I guess that proves how much I care about that fight. Toney is fat, slow, and hasn’t beat a credible opponent since he was on steroids. The one thing I will give him is if he lands it’ll probably be trouble for Couture. Toney has never been a power puncher, but Couture’s chin has looked pretty bad in the fights against Nog, and Brock. Still- Couture by TKO Rd 1

    Richard-Yea I figured that would happen. Since there was 5 of you guys I didn’t remember who picked who at the end. We might be in trouble though if this event is anything like Strikeforce’s show last week. I think I went 1-3 on the main card.

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