Last weekend was not especially kind to me. In fact I think it was probably the worst weekend I have had since I started doing this. On top of all that, my boy Monson lost. Anyways look for a full recap with the rest of the weekend picks on Friday. Until then check out the picks for tonight’s Fight Night.
Nate Diaz (10-4) vs. Melvin Guillard (22-7-2)
Everyone in MMA thinks that focusing on an aspect of the game will lead to improvement. While this argument is logical, it is not proven through history. Melvin Guillard is one of those guys, who no matter how much he tries will not pick up the submission game. At some point, this fight will end up on the ground and Diaz will win by submission.
Pick = Nate Diaz
Gray Maynard (7-0) vs. Roger Huerta (20-2-1)
Pure wrestlers do have a place in MMA. Although Gray Maynard has added a lot of skills to his game, but he is still able to beat many quality fighters using just his wrestling. Roger Huerta was well on the way to dropping a decision to Clay Guida before he caught him, and that was when Huerta was in his prime. Maynard will be able to control the fight on the ground and win a dominant decision.
Pick = Gray Maynard
Carlos Condit (22-5) vs. Jake Ellenberger (21-4)
The line on this fight is ridiculous. If I were still a gambler I would head over to BetUS and lay down some money on Jake Ellenberger. He has the wrestling advantage and might be able to avoid submissions from the top. However, in a three round fight Carlos Condit will be to active on the ground and on his feet. He will not stop Ellenberger, but he will do enough to win a decision.
Pick = Carlos Condit
Tim Credeur (12-2) vs. Nate Quarry (11-3)
Nate Quarry will have a size advantage in this fight. He will also be able to stop Credeur’s takedowns. Look for Quarry to stalk Credeur around the cage and eventually get a late round stoppage.
Pick = Nate Quarry
Steve Cantwell (7-2) vs. Brian Stann (6-2)
Brian Stann has been somewhat exposed. He won a lot of fights early in his career due to his power, and now he is in the UFC facing much tougher fighters. Cantwell has shown that his game has improved tremendously. Look for Cantwell to control the distance with his footwork and pick away at Stann for a late stoppage.
Pick = Steve Cantwell
Chris Wilson (14-5) vs. Mike Pyle (17-6-1)
Although Mike Pyle is well rounded, he does not really have any one dynamic skill set. Chris Wilson will be able to keep distance on the feet and land effective strikes. A lot of welterweights are not used to a good striker like Wilson, since there are so few in the division. If Pyle is able to get the fight to the ground, he will not be able to submit Wilson or do any impressive damage. Wilson will pick away at Pyle, and take home a decision victory.
Pick = Chris Wilson
Sam Stout (14-5-1) vs. Phillipe Nover (5-2-1)
“The Next Anderson Silva” is a very tempting pick. As much as he tries Sam Stout will always be weak in the wrestling game. Like almost all Shawn Tompkins guys, his defense amounts to turning your back and running from a takedown. With all that being said, Stout will be able to put hands on Nover at some point in this fight and stop his opponent.
Pick = Sam Stout
Jeremy Stephens (15-5) vs. Justin Buchholz (8-3)
Aside from the Corey Hill fight, Justin Buchholz has not shown much but a propensity to clinch. The loser of this fight is probably going to be out of the UFC. Jeremy Stephens already fights with reckless abandon, and now with his job on the line who knows what we might see. Stephens will eventually let loose and finish Buchholz in the third round.
Pick = Jeremy Stephens
Brock Larson (26-2) vs. Mike Pierce (9-1)
When facing more athletic fighters or ones with dynamic grappling games, Brock Larson is going to have problems. Here he does not have that problem. Mike Pierce has a few impressive wins on his resume, but he will not be able to deal with Larson. Look for Larson to press the issue with takedowns and dominate from the top position. Larson could lock up a submission, but he will probably ride it out for the decision.
Pick = Brock Larson
Steve Steinbeiss (4-2) vs. Ryan Jensen (13-5)
Over the course of his career, Steve Steinbeiss is yet to show that he can deal with ground fighters. Ryan Jensen is not a great wrestler, but he is going to be persistent, and it is going to be enough for a decision victory.
Pick = Ryan Jensen
Jay Silva (5-0) vs. C.B. Dollaway (8-2)
Clarence Byron Dollaway caught a little bit of a break here. After showing some serious submission defense issues against Tom Lawler, he was set to face Dan Miller. Now he takes on Jay Silva, who, while still dangerous, does not posses the same submission threat. If Dollaway is able to avoid Silva’s heavy strikes, he will bring home a decision victory.